​Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 3/6/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 12:15 p.m. EST, we have 12 races at Tampa Bay Downs. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions with a 45% chance of rain by mid afternoon.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Morning Molly and Magic Attitude, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 12/1 and 9/2

Race 9 is the $225K Grade II Hillsborough Stakes for older fillies and mares racing 1 1/8 miles on the turf. It’s the start of the all stakes Pick 3, and numberFire projects Magic Attitude (9/2) to win from the rail. She was beaten as the favorite last race, a Grade 1 in October. Her prior race was a Grade 1 victory at Belmont, and she hit the board with a pair of wins in four previous starts in France. Counterparty Risk (4/1) is the slight favorite, and she’s a head from winning three in a row for EPO trainer Chad Brown. Counterparty Risk won as the favorite going 1 1/16 miles here a month ago to beat pace-presser New York Girl (5/1) by a length.

Morning Molly (12/1) should settle nicely near the front, and FB Winners notes her strong tactical speed in winning three times on the turf and just missing in a pair of runner-up finishes on the grass. That includes in early January when posting a 97 speed figure over this track. She’s one to include in exacta and trifecta wagering in a race that lacks much speed. Daily Horse Picks likes the pace scenario for Morning Molly and gives Magic Attitude the top speed rating.

Domain Expertise, Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1

Race 10 is the $200K Grade III Florida Oaks for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on the turf. numberFire's algorithm likes the two favorites to decide the race with Domain Expertise (3/1) and Jouster (2/1), who has won two in a row since moving to the turf and will likely be leading this group around the track. Horse Racing Radar notes that the jockey/trainer combo on Domain Expertise has won 4-of-9 races together, and she won here in December and ran even faster with a 96 speed rating to finish with good energy and a close third in her graded stakes debut five weeks ago.

Be Sneaky (10/1) could do just that in stretching out with first-time Lasix. She’s hit the board in all three starts but needs an improved speed figure to factor. Oyster Box (4/1) is 2-for-2 and also needs to show more speed in her stakes debut.

Hidden Stash and Promise Keeper, Race 11

FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1 and 8/1

Race 11 is the $400K Grade II Tampa Bay Derby for three-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles. The top-four finishers earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5). The top choice according to numberFire’s data is favorite Candy Man Rocket (2/1) followed by Hidden Stash (4/1). FanDuel Racing's implied odds suggest Candy Man Rocket has a 31% chance to win, but he looks like a vulnerable favorite.

Candy Man Rocket won the Sam F. Davis here a month ago as the 3/1 choice on these pages with an opening morning line of 10/1. He stalked the pacesetter Boca Boy, who finished fourth, and took over at the top of the lane to win by 1 1/4 lengths over third-place finisher Hidden Stash. Candy Man Rocket faces some tougher foes here, including Promise Keeper (8/1) for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s a son of Constitution and crushed the field in his second start with strong fractions and a 90 speed figure going 1 mile over a sloppy surface. Super Screener likes the value and believes he can win or hit the board in Exacta and Trifecta wagering with leading jockey Luis Saez riding.

Hidden Stash is a must include -- per Super Screener and numberFire -- after he made up ground on Candy Man Rocket last race. Hidden Stash won his two previous races going this distance. He’s also a son of Constitution, whose prodigy includes Tiz the Law, last year’s Belmont and Travers winner who was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. Boca Boy (15/1) can run better and carry his speed after failing to hold up in his last race. But he finished in the money in his prior four starts, and FB Winners likes his chances.