Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 2/28/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 2:00 p.m. ET, we have 10 races at Oaklawn Park. Using TVG and other projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions with some rain in the forecast again at Oaklawn following yesterday’s rain and sloppy track.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.

Abrogate and Windmill, Race 6

TVG Odds: 5/2 and 7/2

Race 6 is the $150K Dixie Belle for three-year-old fillies sprinting 6 furlongs. Daily Horse Picks (DHP) and Guaranteed Tip Sheet favor the top two morning line runners.

They project Abrogate (5/2) to get to the wire first with trainer Steve Asmussen’s go-to jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. riding. He’s a son of Outwork and is 2-for-2 at this track with a 90 speed figure last race when running along the lead over a muddy surface.

The outside horse in post 8, Windmill (7/2), rates fastest by DHP’s projections with a pace projector favoring him, as well. He’s a son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and won his debut last month wire-to-wire by 4 lengths with a 97 speed figure.

The Mary Rose, Race 8

TVG Odds: 9/2

Race 8 is the $150K Downthedustyroad for state-bred fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. DHP projects The Mary Rose (9/2) with EPO trainer Brad Cox to win. Horse Racing Radar (HRR) notes he’s a distance specialist with 42% wins in 12 starts, including 3-for-6 at Oaklawn. She’s also 2-for-2 over a wet track.

Bye Bye J (3/1) ran the highest last-race speed figure, according to HRR. The jockey/trainer combo of Ricardo Santana, Jr. and Steve Asmussen pair up again with Bye Bye J. She won last summer but is 0-for-4 since. DHP rates her speed fastest, and she’s run a few triple-digit speed figures.

Monomoy Girl and Finite, Race 9

TVG Odds: 1/1 and 9/5

Race 10 is the featured $250K Grade III Bayakoa Stakes for older fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. A pair of strong horses are in the field with Monomoy Girl (1/1) and Finite (9/5) expected to decide this race. Brad Cox-trained Monomoy Girl has won 13-of-15 starts plus two runner-up finishes. HRR notes Monomoy Girl’s last race was a sweeping stretch run to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her recent clocker workout was fast, and she’s likely ready to fire again.

Finite has won 3-of-4 at the distance, including one over a sloppy surface. She’s won 6-of-12 plus three runner-up finishes and should be coming from off the pace. Steve Asmussen trains Finite and Another Broad (6/1), who is one to watch if the track comes up sloppy, as she’s won 4-of-6 on off tracks, according to HR.