​Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/27/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 1:15 p.m. ET, we have 11 races at Oaklawn Park. Using TVG and other projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions with rain in the forecast during the afternoon at Oaklawn.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Mystic Guide, Race 7

TVG Odds: 9/5

Race 7 is the $600K Grade III Razarback Handicap for older horses racing 1 1/16 miles. The top picks according to Daily Horse Picks (DHP) data are favorites Mystic Guide (9/5) and Owendale (2/1), the latter of whom has the highest speed rating by DHP’s data.

Mystic Guide looks like the best horse in the field according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet, and he’s been off since October. Owendale is a closer at a track and distance that favors speed but could be sloppy with rain and scattered showers in the forecast during the afternoon. Rated R Superstar (8/1) has the most experience over the Oaklawn track.

Kimari and Amy’s Challenge, Race 8

TVG Odds: 2/1 and 5/2

Race 8 is the $200K Spring Fever Sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs for older fillies and mares. Favorite Kimari (2/1) breaks from the outside No. 9 post with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario aboard. Horse Racing Radar notes she hasn’t run since September, but her morning work tab has shown lots of speed. She's hit triple-digit speed figures in three starts while winning 4-of-8 overall plus two runner-up finishes. DHP rates her the clear class and speed in the race.

Casual (5/1) is undefeated in two starts at Oaklawn, while Amy’s Challenge (5/2) has inside speed and has finished in the top three in 8-of-9 starts at Oaklawn.

Jackie’s Warrior, Race 10

TVG Odds: 9/5

Race 10 is the $750K Grade III Southwest Stakes for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles. The winner earns 10 qualifying points toward entry in the May 1 Kentucky Derby. The two favorites will decide this race,according to TVG and DHP data. Essential Quality (3/2) and Jackie’s Warrior (8/5) are the best two runners and have top jockeys Luis Saez and Joel Rosario riding for leading trainers Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen.

Essential Quality is 3-for-3 after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. Jackie’s Warrior is 4-for-5 and finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the favorite chasing ferocious fractions. A better pace in this race will likely allow him to turn the tables.

Spielberg (7/2) has two wins and two runner-up finishes and makes his sixth graded stakes start for top trainer Bob Baffert. He was a $1 million purchase and ran a bullet in the morning in final prep for this race, which is his first outside of California in eight starts.