​Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/13/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 13 races at Fair Grounds. Using TVG and other sources as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Wells Bayou and Maxfield, Race 10

TVG Odds: 6/1 and 4/5

Race 10 is the $200K Grade III Mineshaft Stakes for older horses racing 1 1/16 miles. Maxfield (4/5) reboots here as the heavy favorite. The son of Super Saver is the top pick of Guaranteed Tip Sheet and is 4-for-4 with a Grade I win last fall. He won two months ago over this track with a career-best 103 speed figure and is the one to beat.

Wells Bayou (6/1) is a speed horse who will likely dictate pace. He won the Grade II Louisiana Derby here last year with a 102 speed figure. Wells Bayou was sidelined eight months and returned to finish third here last month in a Grade III race. He has two very sharp drills on the work tab since, and John Velazquez rides for trainer Brad Cox.. Enforceable (6/1) finished fifth in last year’s Louisiana Derby and seventh in the Kentucky Derby. He hit a new career-best 109 speed figure over this track a month ago in Allowance company.

Travel Column and Souper Sensational, Race 12

TVG Odds: 2/1 and 8/1

Race 12 is the $300K Grade II Rachel Alexandra for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles. Nine runners are entered, and the winner earns a spot in the Kentucky Oaks, with top-four finishers earning qualifying points (50-20-10-5). This is a rematch of the top-two finishers in the Grade II Golden Rod over Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs. Travel Column (2/1) has been working long and strong since that win and troubled trip as noted by Super Screener. She finished with another gear after getting stuck behind horses and still won to beat Clairiere (5/2). Travel Column is a top board hitter and projected winner for the third time in four starts over this track.

Super Screener likes Souper Sensational (8/1) to hit the board at a price for top trainer Mark Casse. Souper Screener notes she will press the pace and reserve energy, which she was unable to do in her last race a month ago at Fair Grounds with super fast fractions. Souper Sensational was 9/5 that day and was beaten by Charlie’s Penny (9/2). Moon Swag (15/1) finished third in that race. It's his second off a layoff and a good effort is projected for Souper Sensational.

Midnight Bourbon and Mandaloun, Race 13

TVG Odds: 6/1 and 9/2

Race 13 is the TVG feature, the $400K Grade II Risen Star Stakes for three-year-olds. It’s a Kentucky Derby prep race with qualifying points to the top-four finishers (50-20-10-5). With two scratches, including favorite Keepmeinmind (3/1), there will be 11 runners.

Expert picks in a pretty open race favor Mandaloun (9/2) to turn the tables off his best speed figure, when he finish third as the favorite behind Midnight Bourbon (6/1) and Proxy (8/1) in last month’s Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Carillo (15/1) is an off-the-pace longshot to include with value, and Senor Buscador (6/1) also offers value as a deep closer in a race projected with more pace and speed.