Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 1/16/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 11:45 a.m. EST, we have 12 races at Gulfstream Park. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Sugar Fix and Sun Summers, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 7/2
Race 8 is the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf for state-bred females, and it's going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Favorite Sugar Fix (2/1) is running for EPO trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and is the best bet of Guaranteed Tip Sheet. She’s the most battle-tested and consistent runner, and Horse Racing Radar notes she’s won 7-of-14 starts on the turf and should be running on or near the lead.
Daily Horse Picks gives the top speed and class to Kelsey’s Cross (9/2), who is the projected winner by numberFire, just in front of Sun Summers (7/2). Kelsey’s Cross is a deep closer with John Velazquez riding. The meet's top jockey in win percentage is Irad Ortiz Jr., and he rides Sun Summers for EPO trainer Mike Maker. She’s won back-to-back races.
Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello provided his insight on the Horse Racing Radar podcast and adds Bienville Street (4/1), who finished third behind Sugar Fix in another race and has leading jockey Paco Lopez riding. Leading into Race 8 and the start of the Pick 6 is the "money horse." Candy Jar (3/1), who Aiello tabs as the Race 6 winner.
Noble Drama, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/5
Race 9 is the Sunshine Classic for state-bred older horses going 1 1/8 miles. The top pick of numberFire’s algorithm is favorite Noble Drama (7/5). Horse Racing Radar notes that Noble Drama is the only horse who has run this distance and is 10-for-17 at Gulfstream. He won this race last year and is a worthy favorite. Aiello notes the farther you go, the more pronounced the speed bias is on the main track at Gulfstream.
Roman Empire (4/1) has Luis Saez riding for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher. Roman Empire has seven starts but owns two wins and two runner-up finishes in five outing at Gulfstream.
Extravagant Kid, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/5
Race 10 is the Sunshine Sprint for state bred older horses, and it's going 6 furlongs. Horse Racing Radar notes that 38% of the winners at this distance win wire-to-wire. The top pick of numberFire is Extravagant Kid (7/5), an 8-year-old gelding who has faced better horses than most others in this field and has won 6-of-13 on the dirt. He’s finished in the money in 90% of his starts at the distance. Aiello says he’ll win, and it’s just by how many lengths -- an absolute standout.
Many speed runners will be pushing for the lead, and a closer could pick up the pieces. Value underneath could be Souper Stonehenge (5/1), who has handled the track, and Inter Miami (8/1) moves into a high-profile barn and has to step up to hit the board but has top jockey Jose Ortiz riding.
Monforte and Venezuelan Hug, Race 11
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 3/1
Race 11 is the Sunshine Turf for older state bred runners, and it is going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This is the most wide open of the four Sunshine Millions races, and numberFire projects a longshot winner in Galleon Mast (10/1).
Venezuelan Hug (3/1) is 3-for-3 at the distance and will likely be a closer chasing the speed. Monforte (9/2) is freshened, has won 5-of-7 races in 2020 and will likely be running along the lead. Shamrocket (7/2) has the jockey/trainer combo of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher and has hit the board in all four starts at Gulfstream, recording one win.
