Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 11/11/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Churchill Downs. Using TVG's projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Fast Recovery and Approved, Race 4
TVG Racing Odds: 7/2 and 4/1
Race 4 is a small Claiming race at 1-mile. Daily Horse Picks and Guaranteed Tip Sheet project Fast Recovery (7/2) to get to the wire first and win with Approved (4/1) to hit the board. Horse Racing Radar notes that Approved is making his second start after being claimed by trainer/owner Steve Asmussen.
Fast Recovery will need pace to run into, and he’ll likely get it similar to his maiden win from off the pace here in September. The favorite, Drink (5/2), has finished runner-up in his last two starts at Churchill Downs, including a front-running loss by a head here in September.
Locally Owned, Race 7
TVG Racing Odds: 3/1
Race 7 is an Allowance race at 1 1/16 miles. The top pick according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet is Locally Owned (3/1). He won here in June at a longer distance and posted a 99 speed figure. In three races since, he’s finished third twice and missed the board.
The favorite is Two Thirty Five (5/2), a 6-year-old who still tries hard and runs fast with triple-digit speed figures. He won in April against a large field as the favorite but missed badly here in September before a runner-up finish last race in Keeneland at this distance.
Haunt (8/1) took a step back last race off a layoff and trainer change. His five previous races were speed figures in the 90s, which fits with these.
Osaka Girl and Sun Summers, Race 8
TVG Racing Odds: 4/1 and 4/1
Race 8 is an Allowance race for fillies and mares at 1-mile on the turf. Guaranteed Tip Sheet’s Horse Racing Radar notes that projected winner, Sun Summers (4/1), has two bullet workouts this past month after winning her last race in September. That was her debut at Churchill Downs, and she posted a 92 speed figure at this distance with an impressive 3-length win.
More than Usual (5/2) is the favorite on the rail for EPO trainer Brad Cox. She missed badly in her last two races, the worst running of her nine-race career.
Osaka Girl (4/1) has a win and three runner-up finishes in four starts this year. She should go to the lead and will be tough to beat and keep out of the money. Good health should lead to continued good races and finishes.