Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 11/5/20

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Churchill Downs. Here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

War Detonator, Race 2

TVG Racing Odds: 2/1

The day begins with sunshine in Louisville at Churchill Downs, and you can watch the races on TVG.

Race 1 is a high-end Maiden Claimer at 6 furlongs. The favorite, War Detonator (2/1), is a best bet of Guaranteed Tip Sheet, and he breaks from the rail with jockey Corey Lanerie looking to break well with plenty of speed in the race. He’s finished runner-up his last two races, including when posting a career-best 86 speed figure here in September.

Lemon and Diem (7/2) makes his second start and has a solid work tab since finishing fifth back in April. Lemon and Diem has the Churchill Downs meet leading jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. riding and leading trainer Steve Asmussen.

TVG notes that Augusta Melody (10/1) makes his debut and is a son of Speighstown and a winning mare that earned more than $800k on the racetrack.

Hard to Be Good, Race 3

TVG Racing Odds: 3/1

Race 3 is a Claiming race at 1 1/16 miles. The top pick according to the Daily Horse Picks alghorithm is Street to Indy (7/2), with Hard to Be Good (3/1) and Believeinholidays (6/1) projected to hit the board.

Street to Indy is a 7-year-old who won here at the distance two races back, and that race followed three straight runner-up finishes. He didn’t like the Keeneland track last race two weeks ago in a poor finish against better runners but is right back with an expected pace pressing trip.

Hard to Be Good comes in from Indiana Grand with three straight in-the-money finishes, including a win in September with a 98 speed figure. He tried the turf last race and was claimed by trainer Tom Amoss. Now back on dirt, he’ll go to the lead and look to settle before taking to task in the stretch. Daily Horse Picks rates him the top speed and fastest horse in a race with plenty of others looking to press him.

Hardly a Cause (4/1) has 11 wins and 26 in-the-money finishes in 42 starts and finished fourth behind winner Street to Indy in September. This race appears to set up better for him coming from off the pace with more speed in the race. He won here last December at the level with a 95 speed figure and can provide a better Exacta and Trifecta payoff with inclusion.

Could You, Race 10

TVG Racing Odds: 5/2

Race 10 is a claiming race for fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs. Guaranteed Tip Sheet’s Horse Racing Radar (HRR) has a projected best bet winner on Could You. (5/2). HRR notes she won two races back as the favorite here going wire-to-wire and now drops down in class and appears best.

Irish Willow (4/1) breaks from the rail and will be tracking Could You. She’s off back-to-back runner-up finishes, including as the favorite here two months ago when just missing by a nose.

Create a Story (4/1) is a late bloomer and makes her third start and faces winners for the first time for trainer Steve Asmussen. Veiled Vixen (6/1) is a sleeper who could surprise, making her second start this year after finishing third three weeks ago with past history of competitive efforts.