​Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 9/10/20

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 1:15 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Kentucky Downs. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Logical Myth and Reprobate, Race 5

FanDuel Racing Odds: 10/1 and 10/1

The boutique six-day meet at Kentucky Downs continues Thursday with some of the best turf racing in the county. We enjoyed Wednesday's card with a pair of winners -- including at 8/1 odds in Race 9. Let’s continue at America’s only European-style (all turf) racecourse.

Race 5 is an Allowance race at 1-mile on the Turf. The top pick, according to Daily Horse Picks (DHP), is Picasso (6/1) followed by Mantra (9/2). However, numberFire projects Justinthenickotime (6/1) to win for EPO trainer Mike Maker.

We’ll look to score at an even better price on Logical Myth (10/1) and Reprobate (10/1). Both rate among the top speed, according to DHP, with pace projections favoring Justinthenickoftime, who has three runner-up finishes in each of the last three months at Gulfstream Park.

Micheline and Carpe Vinum, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 8/1

Race 8 is the $500K Exacta Systems Dueling Grounds Derby for 3-year-old fillies running a 1 5/16 mile marathon on the Turf. Top jockey Jose Ortiz rides favorite Harvey’s Lil Goil (9/5) for trainer Bill Mott while brother Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Stunning Sky (3/1) for EPO trainer Mike Maker. numberFire’s algorithm projects those two on top with Stunning Sky to win.

Harvey’s Lil Goil is sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh. She’s won 3-of-6 starts and ran what was perhaps her best race last month in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes when finishing third with a 99 speed figure after stumbling badly at the start. Jose will have her toward the front in this race.

Stunning Sky enters off very close back-to-back runner-up finishes, including with a 107 speed figure in the Saratoga Oaks when unable to outrun the pacesetter. The distance is a minor concern.

Carpe Vinum (8/1) is ridden by top West coast jockey Flavien Prat for EPO trainer Phil D’Amato. She ran her fastest race (107 speed figure) last month in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks but still finished fifth at long odds. She can improve with better health, stringing races together and a boost from her trainer.

Micheline (6/1) with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario has a good morning work tab and finished fourth just two weeks ago in the Grade 3 Lake George while passing horses in the stretch. That was her fastest race in five starts this year. She finished a close closing sixth behind winner Marvey’s Lil Goil in June at the same odds as the winner. Micheline is an improving filling that can move forward.

Longshot Ask Bailey (20/1) is overlooked but has EPO on her side as another Mike Maker-trained filly. She strings three races together since July, including an impressive turn of foot and daylight win at a mile. She missed the money in her last race at half these odds, but the only knock is that Top Race Reports notes runners coming in from Indiana Downs like this one are 0-for-12 so far in route races at the short Kentucky Downs meet. Still worth a shot in exacta and trifecta wagers underneath.

Jolting Joe and Shamrocket, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 15/1 and 6/1

Race 9 is the $750K Gun Runner Dueling Grounds Oaks for 3-year-olds running a 1 5/16 mile marathon on the Turf. There are 12 runners, and the favorite breaking from the No. 11 post is Bama Breeze (3/1). He’s the top pick of both numberFire and Guaranteed Tip Sheet, who says he will be charging late with some of the strongest late-pace numbers in the field. Bama Breeze has won just 1-of-5 starts and missed the money in his two recent races.

Peace Achieved (9/2) has just one race this year and finished fourth in a tuneup for this big race. But DHP projects improvement and a win in his second start, noting that the slower pace up front will allow Peace Achieved to settle effectively on or near the lead. Peace Achieved won over this unique track last summer as a 2-year-old for top trainer Mark Casse.

Jolting Joe (15/1) is a longshot who has a win and four second-place finishes in five starts. He strings races together off his best performance and win last month in a minor stakes. It is tougher to determine how many of these 3-year-olds will handle the marathon distance, but it helps to have EPO on your side preparing you for the distance race.

Shamrocket (6/1) has finished in-the-money in 6-of-7 starts and has leading jockey Joel Rosario riding for top trainer Christophe Clement. She’s well-bred and fits fine, with DHP rating her speed just behind Bama Breeze's.