Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday 9/4/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes and watch for any weather issues.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Mr Freeze and By My Standards, Race 10
TVG Odds: 6/1 and 7/5
Race 10 is the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes with 8 older horses racing 1 1/16 miles. The two prohibitive favorites are By My Standards (7/5) and McKinzie (8/5). However, Daily Horse Picks' algorithm projects Mr Freeze (6/1) as the winner for trainer Dale Romans and rider Manny Franco, followed by Silver Dust (15/1) and By My Standards still hitting the board.
Insight from Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS) suggests early speed has a major advantage, and Mr. Freeze will be running up front with Bodexpress (15/1) now scratched. Mr Freeze won a graded stakes race at Churchill Downs last September pressing the pace with a 115 speed rating. He won again earlier this year but finished 6th in the Fourth of July salty Met Mile in which the favorite McKinzie finished fifth.
Owendale (6/1) has top class but finished fifth behind By My Standards (2nd) and Silver Dust (3rd) in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in June.
Silver Dust is training very well and has finished in-the-money in 7-of-9 races as noted by GTS, who still rates the two favorites best. By My Standards may get the pace advantage while sitting just off the leaders as he did in his two recent runner-up finishes with the latest posting a 118 speed figure and also winning in February with race favorite Mr. Freeze finishing third from off the pace that day.
Monomoy Girl, Race 11
TVG Odds: 4/5
Race 11 is the Grade 1 La Troieene for older fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles. The heavy favorite is Monomoy Girl (4/5) for EPO trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux in the irons. Daily Horse Picks (DHP) and Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS) both project her to win.
Monomoy Girl has crossed the finish line first in 11-of-13 races and was disqualified from first in one race. She’s 2-for-2 this year, including a win at this track and a win her last start in July at 1/5 odds. She’ll get bet down and is best as a Single pick in the horizontal wagers, which includes the Late Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Longshot Risky Mandate (20/1) is getting better and improving while Lady Kate (15/1) steps up in class running near the lead with DHP and GTS giving Risky Mandate a better chance to hit the board underneath for your Exacta and Trifecta bets.
Swiss Skydiver and Speech, Race 12
TVG Odds: 8/5 and 5/1
Race 12 is the featured Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks with a $1.25 million purse. There are 9 three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/8 miles, and two favorites will be tough and worth watching for the expected head-to-head duel with both out front with early speed.
Gamine (1/1) for trainer Bob Baffert has won 3-of-4 starts with a 117 speed figure her best in June. She’s won both her Grade 1 starts but now has to carry her speed a longer distance.
Swiss Skydiver (8/5) has won 5-of-9 starts for trainer Kenny McPeek, including the Grade 1 Alabama just three weeks ago with a 106 speed figure when gearing down towards the finish. She’s
pulled away late in three of four recent wins.
Speech (5/1) won the Grade 1 Ashland in July and could be the one to take advantage of a hot pace.