Lone Star Park Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 7/29/20
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Contendress, Race 2 (3:07 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 6/1
This Claiming event features eight runners going one mile on dirt. Despite lacking a top-three projection by our model, I like Contendress in this one. The filly has never posted a speed figure below 50, though she's topped out at 69. She has just five top-three finishes in 13 starts, but she could very well turn it around here. By booking Ramon Vazquez as the rider, Contendress is in prime position to place well. Her three July workouts have been very encouraging.
Current betting favorite Formula (7/5) is our model's pick based on her field-high figures. However, the filly's efforts since her last race at the end of June are cause for concern. She'll hope to quash those concerns with the help of jockey Stewart Elliott. Queen of Carnival (4/1) won here nine days ago and is looking to keep that form going. Her victory came among similar competition at the same distance. Sue's Easter Girl (8/1) could be thereabouts. Second Hand Heart (30/1) is a longshot worth including.
Quinn Murphy, Race 5 (4:43 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
For reasons I'll talk about below, I'm going to avoid the betting favorite in this Claiming event. Instead, I'll go with our model's pick, Quinn Murphy. The mare placed sixth in an Allowance event here eight days ago, but she posted a figure of 80 in that one. It was her third figure of 80-plus in three efforts since returning from hiatus -- she reached 92 in her first race back. For this race, she gets a plus jockey booking in Ramon Vazquez. Vazquez is first at the track with a 25% winning percentage and 55% top-three percentage.
Current betting favorite Cypress Point (9/5) has won four of her seven races in 2020, including a victory in her last one with a 94 figure. However, that win came just two days ago. In fact, this will be the filly's third race in eight days. I'm staying away. Coupled horses Soaring Now and Barbress (2/1) have fantastic shots given their figures. Bold Rey (5/2) had a piss-poor effort nine days ago but has won three of her five 2020 outings. Just Leave (8/1) has the figures to be a contender.
Sardabling, Race 8 (6:15 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 10/1
This Allowance race will see nine runners going six furlongs on dirt. I like Sardabling to win despite the long odds. The filly won her debut in February -- the lone race of her career. Her figure wasn't anything to write home about, but her efforts here at Lone Star since have been impressive. Jockey Richard Eramia has five wins in his last 16 starts.
Betting favorite Dustwhirl Wonder (7/5) has had figures of 77, 70, and 69 in his last three, and will be jockeyed by top earner Stewart Elliott. While the filly's form is impressive, it doesn't warrant such short odds. Despite poor efforts in her last two, Tristan's Gold (10/1) has to garner consideration due to an elite jockey/trainer combination. Know What I Mina (6/1) has both the form and the figures to win in her first race in more than a year, but her jockey booking does not excite. Sparking Air (6/1) certainly has the form to be thereabouts.