Lone Star Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 7/28/20
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Nautical Gem, Race 2 (3:07 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 12/1
I'll be entirely honest -- I'm not sure why Nautical Gem opened with 12/1 odds. In the filly's last race, she placed first with a speed figure of 74. Nautical Gem also has an elite combination of trainer and jockey, in Steven Asmussen and Stewart Elliott. Her outings since her victory have shown anything but a decline in form. Whether it's a win, place, or show bet, this is a horse to wager on.
Stalemate (4/1) has elite figures for this field, but her jockey booking is a real Debbie Downer. The filly will be ridden by Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, who hasn't won any of his last 70 races. Stalemate has had figures of 72, 83, 80, and 75 in her last four, but those were with the likes of Stewart Elliott and David Cabrera. Cedar Hall (3/1) is both the current betting favorite and our model's top pick. The filly has had some impressive figures in 2020, though her lone outing since March was underwhelming. Love and Lemons (12/1) is another one in solid form worth including, especially at her price. The mare is fresh off a figure of 75 and some superb workouts.
Doha, Race 4 (4:11 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
The event of the day is a Maiden Special Weight, featuring seven horses making their debuts. One of those is Doha, a two-year-old filly. In two four-furlong workouts in July, Doha had breezing times of 47.6 and 47.2 -- the former ranked 1st out of 29 and the latter ranked 1st out of 95. Jockey booking isn't the best, but it's tough to argue with the form.
I like to bet on jockeys in events like these, and current betting favorite Anxiolytics (2/1) has top earner Stewart Elliott. She'll be in the mix. Shezauno (15/1) has longer odds but is well worth a bet. The filly will be ridden by Ramon Vazquez, who has the best winning percentage at Lone Star in 2020. Scat for the Cause (6/1) and Duchess Bubbles (15/1) are two others worth considering. Our model likes longshot Mischief Girl (30/1).
Game Loading, Race 5 (4:43 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
The fifth race is a claiming event going five furlongs. My pick is Game Loading, who's projected to place third by our model. Game Loading reached a figure of 102 in his final race prior to a three-month hiatus, but his two outings since returning haven't been as solid. That said, there's a number of reasons to like this six-year-old. Prior to his last two efforts, Game Loading achieved figures of 90-plus in 12 of 14, including a high of 110. Game Loading is a two-time winner here at Lone Star and will be riding for a new stable and a different jockey in Ramon Vazquez. Vazquez has placed first in 25% of his 2020 races here, a track-high. The trainer-jockey combo can't be beaten.
Alexandros (6/1) is a five-year-old gelding who should be well in the mix. He won his first career outing at Lone Star seven weeks ago, posting a figure of 92. He's had a number of outstanding efforts since. Exciting (8/1) has terrific form and should be thereabouts. Channel Won (9/2) has placed top-three in six of his last seven, including three victories. Not to be ignored. Triple Creek (2/1) is the current betting favorite. The gelding hasn't won any of his last 10 but does have 7 top-threes during that stretch. Shifty Henry (20/1) and Annie's Candy (15/1) are the longshots to keep an eye on.