Thistledown Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 7/28/20
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
Fat Daddy, Race 2 (1:20 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
Paltarrevenge (5/2) is the favorite in Race 2, and looking at the Equibase speed figures, it's easy to see why. Over his long career, Paltarrevenge has a top 104 speed figure, and he hit 102 as recently as 2018. In 2019, his best speed figure was 91, so he's got some juice left.
But I like taking a shot on Fat Daddy (9/2). While Fat Daddy can't match Paltarrevenge's career-best clip, he's been the faster horse of late. Fat Daddy had a 95 speed figure last year, while Paltarrevenge topped out at 92 in 2019.
The jockeys are a toss-up, with each being ridden by one of Thistledown's best -- Jose A. Bracho for Paltarrevenge and Erik Barbaran for Fat Daddy. So I'll side with Fat Daddy, the horse that's shown better recent speed and offers slightly more bang for your buck.
Circus Rings, Race 5 (2:50 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Our model highlights Race 5 as a spot to find good betting value as we see favorite Dancin' Rosie (5/2) missing out on the top three.
Circus Rings (3/1) is our pick to win, and she had better speed than the favorite in 2019. That hasn't held true so far in 2020, but Circus Rings has run just once this year. Last year, Circus Rings topped out at a speed figure of 90, which was a career-best clip for her. Dancin' Rosie, meanwhile, had 2019-best speed figure of only 79.
Dancin' Rosie did post an 85 speed figure already this year, which tops Circus Rings' 75 from her lone 2020 event. I anticipate Circus Rings to improve in her second outing off a long layoff, and Dancin' Rosie's other two speed figures this season were 72 and 75. I side with our model in Race 5.
Star Mabee, Race 6 (3:20 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Star Mabee (3/1) makes a lot of sense in Race 6. She's priced as the second-favorite behind G's Ship Load (5/2), but our model has Star Mabee winning.
Since a slow 2020 debut, Star Mabee has posted speed figures of 84 and 81, and her best speed figure in 2019 was an 83. G's Ship Load has never run faster than a 78 speed figure, and her two 2020 events have resulted in speed figures of 65 and 68.
Star Mabee will also have one of Thistledown's best riders aboard in jockey Luis Raul Rivera, who owns an 18% win rate and 47% top-three rate in 2020. If Star Mabee runs well, this is her race.