Thistledown Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 7/21/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:50 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Thistledown. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
Roses for Sharon, Race 5 (2:50 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
Based on speed figures, Roses for Sharon (5/2) is in her own class in Race 5. The only issue with her is that she doesn't have much of a track record, running only seven times across the last five years. She's got speed, though, posting an 86 speed figure in both 2018 and 2019, according to Equibase. No other horse in this six-horse field has ever recorded a speed figure better than 75.
Roses for Sharon also has an edge at jockey in the form of T. D. Houghton, who owns a 19% win rate and 53% top-three rate at Thistledown this year.
While Roses for Sharon is a good pick to win, Sincere Devotion (8/1) is an appealing bet to place or show at longer odds. Sincere Devotion's career-best speed figure is a 75, the best mark in the field outside of Roses for Sharon, and she's run that clip twice in her career.
Leading Indicator, Race 6 (3:20 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 6/1
Miss Bliss (5/2) is the favorite in Race 6, but our model likes Leading Indicator (6/1) to win.
Since the start of 2018. Miss Bliss' top speed figure is a 79, which she hit earlier this year. Leading Indicator, meanwhile, has a much better top speed when she's on, posting an 88 speed figure back in February. She's been inconsistent in four races since, but she does have speed figures of 76 and 77 in that span.
Miss Bliss has one of the leading Thistledown jockeys riding in Jose A. Bracho -- 50% top-three rate and 19% win rate in 2020 -- but Leading Indicator's speed is tough to pass on at 6/1 odds.
Lovely Heir, Race 7 (3:50 p.m. EST)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Our algorithm likes fading the favorite in Race 7 as we have favorite Cutler (5/2) missing the board. We pick Spectacular Road (7/2), Lovely Heir (3/1) and Zulu Legend (9/2) to finish 1-2-3, respectively.
Lovely Heir stands out to me, though, in what should be a fast race.
The gelding has been in the top three in 14 of his 20 career events, and he's coming off a win at this track in his last race. Jockey Yarmarie L. Correa -- who has a 19% win rate and 48% top-three rate this year -- guided Lovely Heir to victory in that one, and Correa is back on him again today.
Speed-wise Lovely Heir is trending in the right direction after putting up speed figures of 67, 81 and 85 in his past three. He followed a similar upward trajectory in 2019, eventually reaching at least an 85 speed figure in nine straight races -- including a sparkling 101 clip.
Spectacular Road, on the other hand, has been under a 78 speed figure in three of his last four events. Zulu Legend registered a pair of 90s speed figures in 2019 but opened 2020 with a lowly 58 mark.
