Thistledown Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 7/14/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:50 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Thistledown. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
Dreaminofjustice, Race 3
FD Racing Odds: 4/1
Our model sees value in some of the longer shots in Race 3 as we have favorite Delightful Pride (3/1) missing out on the top three. Instead, we pick Dreaminofjustice (4/1), Punahele (10/1) and Goodfriday Morning (8/1) to finish 1-2-3.
It's easy to see why we're down on Delightful Pride as her career-best speed figure is a lowly 41, according to Equibase. Dreaminofjustice (82), Punahele (88) and Goodfriday Morning (53) all have better career-best speed figures -- though none have performed at their peak level lately.
I agree with our algorithm and side with Dreaminofjustice to win. The mare has shown the best recent speed of the aforementioned horses with a 68 speed figure in her last race. She'll be piloted by Ricardo Feliciano, who has a 17% win rate and 52% top-three rate this year at Thistledown.
South Beach Girl, Race 5
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
It's a similar story in Race 5 as we have favorite Easy Eyes (5/2) finishing off the board in this seven-horse race. Our top three -- in order -- is Not Regret (6/1), South Beach Girl (7/2) and Renee's Sensation (8/1).
Of the four horses we just listed, Easy Eyes has a better career-best speed figure than only one of them (Renee's Sensation). South Beach Girl (73) and Not Regret (70) have the top speed figures in the group.
While none of the horses have been lighting it up lately, I'll side with South Beach Girl to win due to her having the best recent form. Her career-best 73 speed figure came in a win earlier this year, and jockey Yarmarie L. Correa owns a 21% win rate and 51% top-three rate across 120 races in 2020.
S S Revolutionary, Race 6
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
We pick co-favorite S S Revolutionary (5/2) to win Race 6, which features a field of seven debut horses and one filly -- Shez Shacked Up -- with a single race under her belt.
S S Revolutionary has an advantage at jockey with the aforementioned Correa, and she's the co-favorite alongside Costume Jewelry (5/2), a filly we have missing the board. Costume Jewelry has Ademar Santos at jockey, and Santos has won just 11% of his outings here this year, compared to Correa's 21% win rate.
