Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 7/11/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:15 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Belmont Park. Using our numberFire projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Monomoy Girl , Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/5
There are rain showers in the forecast, so watch the weather and check for scratches and changes as a muddy track is projected. The $150K Ruffian Stakes (G2) is for older fillies and mares and is going 1-mile. It's the final graded stakes race of the abbreviated Belmont spring/summer meet.
There are just four challengers to take on prohibitive favorite Monomoy Girl (2/5), the top pick and pace projector at Daily Horse Picks. Her implied odds suggest a whopping 71% chance to win, per FanDuel Racing. With 10 wins in 12 starts, including a Breeders’ Cup Distaff win last year, the 2018 champion 3-year-old filly is likely looking at another win.
At likely post time odds of 1/5 or less and no show wagering in this race, there is no value with the favorite. Add to horizontal wagers as interested and understand EPO when supporting those trainers like Brad Cox of Monomoy Girl.
Bob Baffert-trained Mother Mother (5/2) can pull the upset if she runs back to her speed figures from May and Feb (107) against graded stakes competition. However, she did not do well on a muddy track in her last race in June, finishing fourth as the co-favorite.
Leitone, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2
Race 8 is the start of the Late Pick 3, and the coupled entry of Leitone (5/2) and Kumar (5/2) should take this -- with guaranteed tip sheet making Leitone a best bet. Kumar has now been scratched for this $40K Claiming race at 1 1/16 miles. Leitone won at this distance, level and track back in October, crushing the field by more than seven lengths. He posted a career-best 111 speed figure in the process. Leitone followed up with a Stakes win to close the year, and in his last race in June, he finished second off a layoff as a heavy favorite.
Han Sense (4/1) is the third pick at numberFire behind top choice Leitone. Han Sense makes his Belmont debut in his 28th career start, but a 108 speed figure in a Stakes race in December suggests she can perhaps hold up on the front end while cutting back in distance.
With likely rain showers in the afternoon at Belmont, it's not as prudent to play the ponies with the weather variable clouding the picture. Look elsewhere, and check out our projections and picks at Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes.