Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 7/11/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:05 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Keeneland. Using our numberFire projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Amy’s Challenge , Race 5
Wildwood’s Beauty, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1
FanDuel Racing Odds: 20/1
Race 5 is the start of the $500K guaranteed Pick 5. The Grade 1 Madison Stakes is for older fillies and mares and is racing seven furlongs. There is solid payoff potential in here with reliable mare Amy’s Challenge (8/1) having a pace advantage up front and sitting 12-for-15 in the money. She has finished behind pace-presser Mia Mischief (3/1) three times, but Amy’s Challenge is capable of turning the tables.
Mia Mischief is a pace presser who is actually offering value at the Morning Line price and is a horizontal wagers inclusion.
Sally’s Curlin (10/1) offers value as a deep closer for trainer Dale Romans and is likely sitting on a big race. Include in Pick 5 and horizontal wagers.
The heavy favorite Guarana (1/1) gets the added boost of EPO and trainer Chad Brown with top jock Jose Ortiz riding. The favorite is not worth the risk even as numberFire’s top choice and implied win odds of 50%, per FanDuel Racing.
Do include Wildwood’s Beauty (20/1) as a top long shot. Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener projects a new lifetime top speed figure of 103 for Wildwood's Beauty, who has four straight runner-up finishes along with five wins and 13 top-two finishes overall in 14 starts.
Venetian Harbor , Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/5
Race 7 is the $400K Ashland (G1) with six 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. A single in here for horizontal players with Venetian Harbor (6/5) best and benefiting from the absence of Swiss Skydiver. Still, Venetian Harbor was a significant favorite over her when finishing second in early May and has posted three straight triple-digit speed figures. Venetian Harbor is the top pick of numberFire and also Daily Horse Picks, with DHP showing her with the top speed and pace figures.
Speech (2/1) is the top challenger who has finished second in her two recent starts with triple-digit speed figures, including the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) last month behind Swiss Skydiver.
Art Collector , Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1
This is the $600K Blue Grass Stakes (G2) with a full field of 13 runners going 1 1/8 miles. The top-four finishers receive Kentucky Derby qualifying points (100-40-20-10). The favorite is the lone filly Swiss Skydiver (3/1), who we’ll try to beat. She’s been terrific with three straight wins and triple-digit speed figures in each. Swiss Skydiver will likely be up front on the lead through the first mile or so. From there, she has to answer the distance question, but numberFire likes her chances -- followed by Rushie (5/1) and Basin (8/1).
Rushie has hit the board in all four starts this year but finished third behind two Kentucky Derby contenders in the Santa Anita Derby. She will press the pace, and a win is within reach, according to guaranteed tip sheet.
Basin finished second in a division of the Arkansas Derby last race and has the best early speed figures, according to Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener. But Basin may be too fast up front and is unlikely to hold up.
Tiesto is an interesting longshot who is trying dirt for the first time. A son of Tizno, he’s won only a maiden race but is improving now and will be coming from off the pace in his second race off a layoff.
Enforceable (10/1) is a closer who can benefit if the pace is brisk. He’s working very well leading into this race and has faced quality competition in five straight graded stakes races. But he has no triple-digit speed figures and has been off since finishing fifth in the Louisiana Derby in March. Top stretch rider Joel Rosario will try to bring him home on top.
My top pick is Art Collector (5/1), a son of Classic race winner Bernardini. He’s 2-for-2 this year and hit a 106 speed figure last month off a long layoff in an Allowance race. It's easy to project continued improvement as the late-developing talent flashed excellent late race speed and should enjoy the added distance.