Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Picks for Friday 7/10/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:00 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Gulfstream Park. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
La Rusia, Race 4
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
There's a lot to like about La Rusia (5/2), the favorite, in Race 4. Our model and DailyHorsePicks.com both have the filly getting in the top two, with DHP projecting La Rusia to win and handing her a 25% chance to do so.
She's been in the top three in seven of her 11 career races, and she produced a career-best 86 speed figure earlier this year, per Equibase. That speed figure is slightly better than the career-best of 85 posted by second-favorite Let's Be Honest (7/2), who is numberFire's pick to win. Let's Be Honest struggled in her last outing with a lowly 69 speed figure.
La Rusia also has an edge at jockey in Edgard J. Zayas, one of the leading riders at Gulfstream Park. Zayas has won 17% of his 2020 events while getting in the top three 44% of the time.
Dancing Destroyer and Swirling Candy, Race 6
FD Racing Odds: 5/2 and 6/5
Race 6 has an overwhelming favorite in Swirling Candy (6/5). She's our pick to win as well as DHP's winner, so she's definitely legit. She also has top-tier Gulfstream jockey Emisael Jaramillo at the controls. But the 6/5 line may be a bit much. It implies win odds of 45.5% while DHP gives Swirling Candy just a 28.0% chance to win.
That opens the door for us to find some value elsewhere in this race, and that's where Dancing Destroyer (5/2), the second-favorite, comes in. At 5/2, Dancing Destroyer's implied win odds are 28.6%, so her and Swirling Candy are the clear class of the field, which makes an exacta bet enticing.
Dancing Destroyer doesn't have the speed figures Swirling Candy (career-best of 90) does, but she tied her career-best speed figure with an 84 earlier in 2020 and generated a solid 79 speed figure last time out. In short, Dancing Destroyer is in good form.
While Swirling Candy is a deserving favorite, if you're looking for value, you can bet on Dancing Destroyer to net an upset win or you can go with an exacta that has Dancing Destroyer getting second behind the favorite.
Super Twenty Five, Race 7
FD Racing Odds: 12/1
If you want to find a long shot to back today, Super Twenty Five (12/1) looks like a decent bet. We have the filly getting third in Race 7. DHP grades her well, too, giving her the field's top pace rating as well as the third-best speed rating.
Super Twenty Five had back-to-back races earlier this year of 78 and 79 speed figures. Those clips stack up pretty well next to Baby Ice (3/1) and Gilda F (9/2), the two horses our model has topping Super Twenty Five. Baby Ice hasn't bested a 79 speed figure yet in 2020 while Gilda F has an 81 and 80 to her name over six outings this season but has failed to top a 75 speed figure in any of her other four races.
All in all, Super Twenty Five should be a factor in this race, and you can get her at good odds.