Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 6/28/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:15 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Belmont Park. Using our numberFire projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Armament , Race 5
FD Odds: 4/1
This 1 1/16-mile Claiming race drew seven runners, and two horses will take more betting action with Walkoff (2/1) and Lil Commissioner (5/2) vying for favoritism. But numberFire does not have either horse in its top three; rather, California Night (7/2) and Armament (4/1) are preferred by numberFire.
Walkoff is a deep closer who won here over a muddy track June 5 against cheaper claimers and is now running back for a $20L tag. Normally he would need more pace in the race, but maybe not as he’s capable of finding another gear for EPO trainer Brad Cox.
Lil Commissioner has five wins in 22 starts, including his last race in March at Gulfstream, when he posted a career-best 100 speed figure. He’s now trained by better in Rob Altras after coming over from the crooked EPO barn of Jorge Navarro.
Armament is a War Front colt who won a pair of races in November and February at Aqueduct. His consistent 90s speed figures should have him challenging near the front with an outside break.
California Night has not won any of his last nine races but did produce a 103 speed figure in his runner-up finish in February. She was pressing the pace most the way but faded in a longer 1 1/8-mile race.
Risky Mischief, Race 8
FD Odds: 3/1
Race 8 is the minor $100K Bowerie Stakes with just six state-bred three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs. Daily Horse Picks (DHP) has the favorite Critical Value (6/5) on top breaking from the rail followed by the outside horse Risky Mischief (7/2). Critical Value has the slightly better speed ratings at DHP while the pace sets up better for Risky Mischief (3/1) and rider Jose Ortiz.
Implied odds at FanDuel Racing give Critical Value a 42% chance to win with jockey Junior Alvarado looking to improve on his 12% win rate in 81 starts at the meet.
Critical Value makes her 2020 debut after showing the best form and results of this group as a two-year-old. She won twice but posted her best speed figure when finishing fourth in the Demoiselle (G2) last December.
We'll try to beat her with Risky Mischief, who has posted two strong works this month in prep for her 2020 debut and third career start. She was well regarded when missing the money in a Grade 1 race last Sept. at Saratoga, and a good stalking trip is anticipated with Jeremiah Englehart training both Risky Mischief and Critical Value.
Beyond Brown and Crescent Lady, Race 9
FD Odds: 12/1 and 5/1
Race 9 drew 12 state-bred fillies and mares for this turf test at 1 1/16 miles. It’s a Maiden Special Weight race with unproven runners, and we’ll take a little price with a daughter of Scat Daddy in Crescent Lady (5/1). She’s trained by Bill Mott and looking to improve and win in her fifth start.
Crescent Lady was making up some ground but missed the money in her June 3 race off a long layoff. She’s the second choice of numberFire behind Two Cent Tootsie (6/1), who is ridden by Jose Ortiz and is a daughter of Big Brown. Tootsie is a non-winner in 11 starts but strings together three races and was running well up front at a longer distance in her last start five weeks ago.
The favorite Sainte Mere Eglise (3/1) finished second in her only start last August as a longshot.
Beyond Brown will improve from her poor finish June 7 off a long layoff. She should be out front and has strong stretch rider Joel Rosario aboard. A better finish is expected like her runner-up run as the favorite last November. She’s run well enough over this Belmont turf last year, and at this price, she is worth a play.
