Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 6/20/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 11:45 a.m. EST, we have 12 races at Belmont Park. Using our numberFire projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
It's Belmont Stakes Day! We have six graded stakes races, including four Grade 1's -- headlined by the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes.
Gamine and Lucrezia, Race 8
FD Odds: 1/1 and 9/2
The start of the Late Pick 5 begins with Race 8 -- the one-mile Acorn Stakes (G1) for three-year-old fillies. The Acorn is also a points-scoring race for the September 4th Kentucky Oaks, with the winner earning 50 points. The two favorites -- Gamine (1/1) and Casual (3/1) -- both make their stakes debut with a pair of wins to their credit in two starts.
Gamine hit a 102 speed figure last month and will be running on the front end as the top pick at numberFire for trainer Bob Baffert. Her implied odds to win at FanDuel Racing are a whopping 50%. She's a solid pick to win and a good Pick 5 inclusion along with Casual. Casual, whose sire is Curlin, hit a speed figure of 104 in her Maiden win in April and then came from off the pace to win a sprint last time out at Oaklawn for trainer Steve Asmussen.
If either of those two were to falter, it’s likely the winner would be stakes-experienced filly Perfect Alibi (5/1), who won the Grade 1 Spinaway last September and also the Adirondack (G2) a month prior at seven furlongs. She finished second in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades at a distance and then fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She has a consistent work tab for her 2020 debut with Belmont meet leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. looking for a winning run for trainer Mark Casse.
HRN’s Super Screener likes the current form cycle of Lucrezia (9/2), who tracked a very slow pace and finished second in the Gulfstream Oaks (G2) in March. Her speed was better than her rating that day, and her strong workouts leading up to this warrant a chance at a better price.
Texas Wedge and Stubbins, Race 9
FD Odds: 4/1 and 3/1
The Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes drew eight runners for the six-furlong sprint on the Inner Turf. Pure Sensation (5/2) is now a nine-year-old and has been one of the top sprinters in the country for years. He’s won 13 of 26 turf sprints over the years and will take action with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding for his 2020 debut. Pure Sensation is the top pick at numberFire.
Oleksandra (7/2) just missed in her 2020 debut last month with a huge rally from off the pace, losing to the favorite by a half-length in the Grade 2 Monrovia at Santa Anita. Oleksandra won both his starts on this Inner Turf course a year ago and has a good chance with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario crashing the fast fractions late. FanDuel Racing odds have Oleksandra at a 22% implied chance, just behind Pure Sensation and Stubbins (3/1) -- who finished a hard-charging fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) in November and then a close third last month in the Daytona (G3) with a 114 speed rating. He's reliable win contender with a move forward second off the layoff.
Super Screener projects a moderate pace at best. With Texas Wedge (4/1) just a half-length behind Stubbins last race at lower odds, this tactical runner should be sitting a stalking trip. He ran a 113 speed figure off the layoff last race, and when the running down the lane begins, EPO trainer Peter Miller will like his colt's extra gear and strong kick.
Tap It to Win and Dr. Post, Race 10
FD Odds: 6/1 and 5/1
This is the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes and a reduced distance this year to 1 1/8 miles. Heavy favorite Tiz the Law (6/5) will be the popular pick for trainer Barclay Tagg and jockey Manny Franco. He has four wins in five starts, including the Florida Derby. His speed figures are the best in this field, but watch the weather as there is a moderate chance of rain. Tiz the Law’s only defeat was in the slop. While numberFire likes Tiz the Law to win, we’ll include in exacta, trifecta and late Pick 4 and Pick 5, but try to beat him for a win bet.
Tap It to Win (6/1) will go to the front and could stay there. Returning off an Allowance race romp just two weeks ago, trainer Mark Casse knows he has a full horse that is rapidly improving and could pull the upset.
Dr. Post (5/1) is EPO trainer Todd Pletcher’s best horse of two in this field (Farmington Road, 15/1), and while he’s making his first graded stakes race start, Dr. Post is another horse improving later in his three-year old season. Super Screener projects a giant move forward.