Thistledown Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 6/18/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:50 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Thistledown. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Leona's Reward, Race 5 (2:50 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
numberFire's model picks Leona's Reward as the winner of Race 5, and it's easy to see why given her generally strong form of late.
In her 2020 debut earlier this month, she finished a respectable fourth with a 79 speed figure -- a mark that already compares favorably with this field -- and prior to that, she wrapped up 2019 with wins in three of four races, posting speed figures in the 80s or above, topping out with a year-best 92 in December.
Jockey Gerardo Corrales has some piping hot credentials, too, knocking out wins at a stellar 25% clip and finishing top-three 56% of the time. He produced virtually identical marks in 2019, as well.
In this six-horse field, Drillit (7/2) is probably the toughest competition, producing speed figures of 81, 79, 76, and 90 over the last four, resulting in two wins and two runner-ups. numberFire likes her to finish second.
Mobil Solution, Race 7 (3:50 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
It's a tough call between Mobil Solution and favorite Verissimo (3/1), with numberFire's model selecting Verssimo to get the win and Mobil Solution to finish second. Both horses performed well in 2019, regularly achieving speed figures in the 90s down the stretch.
However, I give the edge to Mobil Solution, who finished ahead of Verissimo in their 2020 debuts just a couple of weeks ago in Thistledown, finishing third and fifth, respectively.
Mobile Solution also has a strong jockey in Luis Raul Rivera (his regular rider), who has a 21% win rate and 41% top-three rate in 2020 and was even better last year at 22% and 54%.
Pat's Karma (9/2) could also be a contender. The gelding was a dud the last time out (finished 10th in that aforementioned Thistledown race) but was also spitting out speed figures in the 90s at the end of 2019. numberFire's model has Pat's Karma finishing third.
Publicist and G Q Girl, Race 8 (4:20 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 3/1 (Coupled)
It might be hard to pass on the two-for-one coupled entry of Publicist and G Q Girl, both of whom could win Race 8. Our model pegs Publicist as the winner, while Timeform also likes both mares.
Publicist has gone through a rough patch lately, finishing last or second-to-last in her last three attempts. But prior to that, she had three wins and a runner-up from December through February, hitting speed figures in the high 80s in those victories. Should that horse show up, it could be lights out.
However, if Publicist struggles again, G Q Girl could pick us up, coming off a runner-up finish earlier this month with an 81 speed figure.
If you're looking for a wager with more exciting odds, then Fancy Pants (6/1) is worth a look. She's coming off back-to-back wins with speed figures of 80 and 82.
