Belterra Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 6/16/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:35 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Belterra Park. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Da Dude and Denny M, Race 1 (12:35 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 4/5 (Coupled)
Da Dude and Denny M are a coupled entry, meaning you're getting two for the price of one, so to speak, and it just so happens both geldings are also arguably the top contenders to take Race 1. FanDuel Racing lists the duo as having a win probability of 56%.
Of all the horses in this contest, only Da Dude and Denny M have achieved a career-best 78 speed figure, with Da Dude hitting that mark in his last race (March) and Denny M reaching it just a few races ago (January). The results have also been there, as Da Dude has two victories and a third-place in three career races (all in 2020), and Denny M has won twice in four career attempts since late 2019.
Brodytheoxman, Race 2 (1:04 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 8/1
Out of the nine horses in this field, only Brodytheoxman and Topshop (4/1) have raced more than once, with five making their racing debuts. It's telling when favorite Entertainment (3/1) finished second-to-last in his only race last month, and Topshop has never placed higher than fifth in six outings, typically finishing at or near the bottom.
Really, it feels like Brodytheoxman should be getting more love here, as he has notably higher speed figures than Topshop, cracking the 50s in three of the last five. He's still looking for that first win but has earned two runner-ups over that span
Florida Rust, Race 7 (3:29 PM)
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
I like both favorite Nessum Dorma (5/2) and Florida Rust in Race 7, and so does numberFire's model, placing them first and second in that order.
But I'm giving the edge to Florida Rust, who is coming off a modest April performance (52 speed figure) but has otherwise hit speed figures in the 60s in five of the last eight races. She hit a career-best 68 in March, which is a level Nessum Dorma has never reached. Nessum Dorma has recorded speed figures of 59, 58, and 60 in her last three dating back to December.
Florida Rust's actual results have been pretty modest, as she's placed top-three only once in the last seven races (a runner-up in December), though she's come close with a pair of fourth-place finishes. Still, this looks like a field she can handle.
She'll also benefit from being guided by the aforementioned veteran jockey, Perry Wayne Ouzts.