Charles Town Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 5/21/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 7 p.m. EST today, we have eight races at Charles Town. Using our projections as a guide, here's a look at some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Incensed, Race 1
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
numberFire's projections have Incensed placing third, but I like his odds of winning this one. DailyHorsePicks has the gelding with the best speed rating in this race and gives him a 58 percent chance of finishing inside the top-three. The seven-year-old is making his 48th career start but just his first at Charles Town. He's coming off a first-place finish at Parx Racing, where he posted a Speed Figure of 82.
Our model likes Run Trouble Run (9/2) to place first, understandably so. In his last race -- which took place in December -- the gelding got a win here at Charles Town. He also posted a Speed Figure of 82. Ruth Less Blue (4/1) and betting favorite Road Guard Post (3/1) have had solid form of late and must be considered here. Road Guard Post, in particular, has had winning form -- I like him finishing top-two.
Way Ahead of You, Race 3
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Way Ahead of You is another horse who's projected to post a third-place finish by our models, but I like her form coming in. The mare has posted Speed Figures of 60 or higher in 8 of her last 10 efforts and has 10 career wins here at Charles Town. According to DHP, Way Ahead of You is first among the competitors in speed rating and second in pace. They give her a 49 percent chance of finishing top-three.
Wolfblade (8/5) also has 10 wins here and is the betting favorite, as well as our model's pick to place first. The mare's form has been mediocre so far in three races in 2020. Mary's Listed Next (15/1) has improving form and is worth a look as a longshot.
Morgan County, Race 5
FD Racing Odds: 6/1
This is a tough race to pick, as there are quite a few horses with excellent form coming in. I'm going with Morgan County because he has the friendliest odds. The gelding has had really impressive form, posting three first-place finishes in his last five and four consecutive Speed Figures above 70. Her workout in early May was impressive, as well.
Speaking of workouts, no horse had a better workout on May 15th than betting favorite Major Medallist (5/2) -- who happens to be numberFire's pick. The gelding has placed top-two in six straight races and has achieved Figures of 70-plus in four of those. Earlscastle (5/1) hasn't placed first since August, but he had formidable workouts and Speed Figures since. The gelding's form has been outstanding.
Rush to the Castle, Race 6
FD Racing Odds: 8/5
Rush to the Castle is both numberFire's projected winner and the betting favorite, and it's easy to understand why. The gelding has won three of his last four races, including back-to-back Speed Figures of 90 or better. DHP has him with the best speed rating and second-best pace in this race.
Speaking of form, Potential Grizzly's (5/1) is very intriguing. The gelding has had Speed Figures above 80 in each of his three races here in 2020, and he ranked first in a May 12th workout -- among 28 horses. Cayenne Creek (6/1) and Jeffery Scott (10/1) have longer odds along with recent form that can lead them to victory.
Dr. Feelgood, Race 7
FD Racing Odds: 6/5
Dr. Feelgood is also the betting favorite and our algorithm's top pick, but it's hard to pass on writing this horse up. The gelding has raced 10 times in his career and has placed first in 8 of those. He's had Speed Figures of 90 or better in five straight, including scores of 109 and -- most recently -- 111. DHP has him inside the top-three of this race in both speed rating and pace, and they give him 63 percent odds of finishing top-three.
If anyone's going to keep up with Dr. Feelgood, it's going to be either Irish Roar (5/1) or Fiber and Emily (9/2). Irish Roar has won back-to-back races, including one in February here at Charles Town. The colt has posted consecutive Speed Figures of 90 and 96.