Will Rogers Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 5/20/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 2:15 p.m. EST today, we have 10 races at Will Rogers Downs. Using our projections as a guide, here's a look at some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Race the Moon, Race 1
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
Race the Moon's form is trending in the right direction for this race. numberFire's models have the gelding finishing third, but I could see a win in store. He has raced three times in 2020, each of them here at Will Rogers and each of them resulting in a runner-up finish. He's posted an average Speed Figure of 72.7 in that stretch. DailyHorsePicks ranks Race the Moon second in speed rating and fifth in pace -- they give him a 78 percent chance of finishing top-three and 24 percent of placing first.
Five Star Kip (8/5) is our model's pick and the betting favorite. The gelding is coming off a poor showing a month ago, but prior to that had posted an average Speed Figure of 83 in his previous three efforts. DHP gives him a 99 percent chance of finishing top-three.
Fearless Will (4/1) has had mediocre form since his win at Remington Park in November. After posting a Figure of 94, the gelding has averaged 60.3 over his last four outings. That said, he does have four top-three finished in five races here. DHP ranks him first in speed and in pace.
Aloo Ghost, Race 2
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
numberFire's model does not have Aloo Ghost placing top-three in this one, but I like his recent form to help vault him to a win. In his last three efforts -- all at Will Rogers -- he's posted an average Speed Figure of 77.7 and has a first- and second-place finish to show for it. DHP gives the gelding an 82 percent chance of finishing inside the top-three.
De Bird Is Da Word (8/1) not only has a great name but also a decent chance at victory here. The gelding has posted three consecutive Speed Figures of 65 or higher after only doing so twice in his previous five outings.
Nacogdoches (3/1) and Pop Life (4/1) are projected by our models to finish second and first, respectively -- their recent form has been questionable, but they're both capable of leaving the rest in the dust.
Miltontown, Race 5
FD Racing odds: 3/1
Miltontown has raced three times at Will Rogers in 2020, he has finished first, first, and second, in that order. His average Speed Figure during those three? 97.3. The gelding is projected for a top-three finish by our models, but his recent form makes it difficult for me to pass up. DHP gives him a 69 percent chance of placing top-three.
Our projected winner and betting favorite Hunka Burning Love (2/1) is coming off a first-place finish here where he achieved an insane Speed Figure of 109. However, if you're a believer in trends, the gelding has finished 10th, 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 1st, 4th, 3rd, and 8th after his eight other career wins. Dame Plata (4/1) has two first-place finishes in three career races here.
Foreign Creation, Race 7
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
numberFire's algorithm projects Foreign Creation to win Race 7, and her recent form makes the pick understandable. The filly has achieved an average Speed Figure of 67 over her last three races here at Will Rogers, with three of those figure being inside the top-four of her career. DHP has her with the second-best speed rating in this race.
Betting favorite Maui Jane (3/1) has also had solid form of late. The mare has had five top-three finishes in her last six efforts. Sheza Hot Flash (8/1) and Eutychia (8/1) are also worthy of consideration.
Other Picks
Race 3: Rockthepulpit (7/2), World (4/1).
Race 6: In the Deep (5/2), Jazz Music (3/1).
Race 9: Speaker Van (7/2), Criminal (5/2).
