Charles Town Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 5/14/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 7 p.m. EST today, we have nine races at Charles Town. Using our projections as a guide, here's a look at some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Heraway, Race 7
FD Racing Odds: 7/2
Heraway will be racing at Charles Town for the first time, but our models like her to place first in this one. The mare has not finished outside the top-three in nine consecutive races, and DailyHorsePicks.com has her ranked second among the horses in speed rating and third in pace.
After not having a Speed Figure above 70 in her first 10 races, the five-year-old has topped that number in four straight. Her 82.7 average over her last three is better than the favorite's -- Talkback (5/2) -- of 79.7.
I'd bet on Heraway's recent form coming through here.
Pecan Pattie, Race 8
FD Racing Odds: 3/1
At 3/1, Pecan Pattie is the betting favorite to win Race 8, though our model has her finishing as the runner-up. Pecan Pattie has DailyHorsePicks' highest-ranked speed figure while coming in third in pace -- a solid combination.
The five-year-old mare has placed inside the top-two in five straight efforts, including two wins. This will be her first career race at Charles Town.
Pecan Pattie has had Speed Figures of 80 or higher in four of her last five outings -- including three straight -- after not reaching that number in six races in a row.
Our model's projected winner -- Ocean Lilly (4/1) -- is a Charles Town veteran and has placed third, second, and first in her last three races, respectively. She's also worthy of consideration. The filly's average Figure over her last three is 80.3, though that's a bit behind Pecan Pattie's average of 84.
Break Dancin, Race 1
FD Racing Odds: 20/1
Break Dancin is my longshot pick of the day, coming in with the seventh-longest odds in this race among eight competitors.
Some of the metrics are not in her favor. DailyHorsePicks has her ranked second-worst in pace and fourth-worst in speed figure. However, she has placed second and third in two of her three races at Charles Town. Her Speed Figure has also increased in consecutive efforts, showing improved form.
Sing Frosty (7/2) is the projected winner by numberFire's algorithm, though she has yet to place inside the top-two in her career, and her recent form has been up-and-down.
Rock On, Race 2
FD Racing Odds: 4/1
Our model likes Rock On to win this race, despite having the third-best odds.
The pick does make sense. DailyHorsePicks gives the gelding the highest speed rank among his competition, though his pace is a bit more questionable (second-lowest).
In five starts in 2020 -- all at Charles Town -- Rock On has placed top-three three times, including a second- and (most recently) first-place finish. He's had impressive Speed Figures above 75 in three of his last four outings.
Lucky Ned Pepper comes in at 8/1 but is also a play worth considering. According to DHP, the four-year-old ranks first in pace and sixth in speed. His recent form has certainly been trending up, with his Speed Figure improving in four consecutive efforts.
Thesweetesttaboo, Race 5
FD Racing Odds: 5/2
Picking the betting favorite isn't exactly bold, but that's not going to stop me from doing so.
Thesweetesttaboo's speed rating is first in this contest, according to DHP, and she's second in pace. Quite the combo.
In three races at Charles Town in 2020, the mare has finished first, first, and first. Starting to see a trend? Her Speed Figure was above 70 in each of those three victories, after not besting that number in six straight races.
