GOLF
John Deere Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
A weaker field is headed to TPC Deere Run for this week's PGA Tour event. What does that mean for our daily fantasy and golf picks?

Just one golfer in the top-25 and just two in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field for this week's John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, a longstanding event at a staple course on the PGA Tour.

The lack of stars makes for a pretty open field at the top -- but it also alters the way we should be building lineups in daily fantasy golf.

How does all of this impact the process this week? Let's dig in.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

71
Distance: 7,289 (around average for a par 71)
Fairway Width: 38.9 yards (73rd of 85 courses)
Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (smaller: 92% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12
Recent Winning Scores: -21, -19, -21, -27, -18
Recent Cut Lines: -3, -4, -3, -3, -2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained

TPC Deere Run is a pretty run-of-the-mill course in terms of determining factors that lead to success.

Other than an emphasis on driving accuracy, TPC Deere Run doesn't tend to reward any particular stats over others at a rate too different than the PGA Tour average.

The par 3s are the easiest on the entire tour, and it's an easy place to putt (80th of 85 courses). It's problematic to miss the rough but easy overall to hit the fairways.

Basically, there are numerous ways to get to low scores here, though getting birdie chances will come from hitting fairways and greens, so ball striking is still at a bit of a premium (whenever we can find it).

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

These golfers have the best strokes gained averages (minimum two starts) in recent years at this course.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Course
SG:T/Rd
2022 2021 2019 2018
Russell Henley $11,800 2.58 - 11 2 -
Lucas Glover $8,800 2.21 MC 1 10 -
Dylan Frittelli $7,700 1.90 30 MC 1 -
Patton Kizzire $8,500 1.63 16 11 - 30
Adam Svensson $9,300 1.51 24 - 18 -
Ryan Moore $8,300 1.50 24 2 18 55
Chris Stroud $7,400 1.46 MC - 4 30
Mark Hubbard $9,200 1.36 13 41 - -
Seamus Power $10,100 1.28 - 8 61 16
Adam Long $7,600 1.28 13 23 53 -
Keith Mitchell $11,100 1.27 - MC - 7
Adam Schenk $10,600 1.22 W/D 4 6 MC
Patrick Rodgers $9,900 1.13 30 23 - 43
Alex Smalley $10,200 1.11 16 47 - -
Martin Laird $7,700 1.11 30 28 37 -
Michael Gligic $7,000 1.09 10 MC - -
Sam Ryder $8,600 1.07 60 58 18 2
Chesson Hadley $8,200 1.03 10 34 - 72


Past winners in the field include J.T. Poston (2022), Lucas Glover (2021), Dylan Frittelli (2019), Michael Kim (2018), Ryan Moore (2016), Zach Johnson (2012), Jonathan Byrd (2007), and Sean O'Hair (2005).

Win Simulations for the John Deere Classic

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Russell
Henley
$11,800 6.3% 34.7% 80.4% +1400
Denny
McCarthy
$12,000 4.9% 31.9% 78.7% +1400
Cameron
Young
$11,900 3.4% 21.1% 70.6% +1600
Taylor
Moore
$10,900 2.8% 23.4% 72.7% +3000
Emiliano
Grillo
$10,400 2.7% 20.3% 68.1% +3000
Adam
Hadwin
$11,400 2.7% 21.4% 69.5% +2800
Chris
Kirk
$10,800 2.5% 20.9% 70.8% +3500
Stephan
Jaeger
$10,000 2.3% 17.2% 68.3% +3300
Nick
Taylor
$9,800 2.2% 20.2% 70.2% +4000
Patrick
Rodgers
$9,900 2.1% 17.5% 66.2% +4500
Adam
Schenk
$10,600 2.1% 17.8% 66.0% +2800
Byeong
Hun
An
$9,900 2.0% 14.5% 61.1% +4000
Keith
Mitchell
$11,100 1.8% 17.2% 67.9% +3500
Alex
Smalley
$10,200 1.8% 15.9% 66.3% +4000
Eric
Cole
$10,500 1.8% 17.2% 68.1% +3300
Matt
Kuchar
$9,600 1.8% 17.6% 66.8% +6000
Brendon
Todd
$9,600 1.6% 16.4% 64.7% +9000
Sepp
Straka
$9,700 1.6% 13.9% 62.0% +5500
Seamus
Power
$10,100 1.6% 14.6% 64.5% +3500
Beau
Hossler
$9,100 1.5% 12.1% 61.2% +5500
Kyoung-hoon
Lee
$9,500 1.5% 15.6% 66.4% +6000
Doug
Ghim
$9,500 1.5% 12.7% 60.2% +6000
Ryan
Palmer
$9,400 1.4% 12.6% 62.4% +6000
J.T.
Poston
$10,300 1.4% 12.9% 62.8% +5000
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$9,800 1.3% 14.6% 64.4% +5500
Mark
Hubbard
$9,200 1.3% 12.7% 62.7% +7000
Samuel
Stevens
$9,000 1.3% 12.1% 59.9% +7500
Joseph
Bramlett
$9,200 1.2% 12.8% 62.2% +6000
Adam
Svensson
$9,300 1.1% 12.1% 59.4% +6500
Taylor
Montgomery
$9,700 1.1% 17.5% 62.3% +5500
Ludvig
Aberg
$11,600 1.0% 2.9% 38.5% +2500
Michael
Kim
$9,400 1.0% 10.2% 58.2% +6000
Chez
Reavie
$9,000 1.0% 11.4% 58.9% +5500
Dylan
Wu
$8,700 1.0% 10.1% 59.2% +6500
William
Gordon
$8,800 1.0% 9.8% 55.2% +9000
Akshay
Bhatia
$8,700 1.0% 10.2% 56.2% +11000
Sam
Ryder
$8,600 0.9% 12.6% 62.9% +11000
Seonghyeon
Kim
$8,600 0.8% 9.6% 58.6% +9000
Ben
Martin
$8,900 0.8% 10.3% 56.4% +11000
Matthew
NeSmith
$8,400 0.8% 7.9% 52.9% +12000
Kevin
Streelman
$8,400 0.8% 10.0% 58.6% +11000
Luke
List
$8,700 0.7% 7.2% 49.6% +10000
Davis
Thompson
$8,400 0.7% 8.5% 54.0% +10000
David
Lipsky
$7,600 0.7% 8.5% 52.8% +10000
Lucas
Glover
$8,800 0.7% 7.3% 51.7% +6000
Nick
Hardy
$8,500 0.7% 7.9% 56.0% +8000
Garrick
Higgo
$8,500 0.7% 6.6% 49.4% +10000
Nate
Lashley
$8,600 0.6% 9.7% 57.1% +11000
Carson
Young
$8,800 0.6% 7.4% 51.4% +10000
Greyson
Sigg
$8,300 0.6% 8.7% 57.1% +12000
Callum
Tarren
$8,900 0.6% 6.4% 48.8% +8000
Robby
Shelton IV
$8,000 0.6% 9.0% 57.0% +20000
Peter
Kuest
$9,100 0.5% 6.3% 49.4% +11000
Kevin
Yu
$9,000 0.5% 4.0% 44.7% +9000
Aaron
Baddeley
$8,000 0.5% 8.9% 56.7% +22000
Andrew
Novak
$8,300 0.5% 5.9% 49.4% +12000
Trey
Mullinax
$8,100 0.5% 6.6% 50.5% +22000
Chesson
Hadley
$8,200 0.5% 6.8% 53.8% +12000
Scott
Piercy
$7,800 0.5% 7.6% 55.1% +22000
Gordon
Sargent
$9,300 0.5% 1.1% 29.6% +8000
Justin
Lower
$8,600 0.5% 7.1% 54.1% +12000
Tyler
Duncan
$7,900 0.5% 5.9% 48.3% +17000
Patton
Kizzire
$8,500 0.5% 6.8% 50.3% +12000
Zac
Blair
$8,000 0.5% 6.5% 52.5% +20000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the John Deere Classic

This field is wide open, according to the simulations. It doesn't leave us with a lot of value, though, in terms of betting.

With how vast the realistic winner pool is both in the simulations and historically with the John Deere Classic, it's a teachable moment -- and we shouldn't force it.

Golfers my model likes at their current odds: Matt Kuchar (+6000), Brendon Todd (+9000), and Akshay Bhatia (+11000).

Names I also like personally while leaning on the model: Russell Henley (+1400), Patrick Rodgers (+4500), Beau Hossler (+5500), and Sam Stevens (+7500).

Early on, it's shaping up as a week with partial units across more names than usual -- or going heavy at Henley.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the John Deere Classic

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Russell Henley (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf betting odds: +1400) - A co-favorite this week, Russell Henley, is not like the usual favorite we have in a PGA Tour field. He's 29th in the Official World Golf Rankings, and he's not as consistently great as someone such as Scottie Scheffler -- but he is still pretty easily the best process play of the week. Henley leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green and driving accuracy, giving him a strong base for TPC Deere Run, where he has finished T11 and 2nd in two starts since 2019. He has also reeled off four straight top-20 finishes and eight of them in his past nine events.

Stephan Jaeger ($10,000 | +3300) - We can save a lot of salary in a lot of places this week. Jaeger is more of a distance fit than he is when we're seeking accuracy, yet distance itself isn't bad this week. What really jumps out for him is a still-great approach-through-putting profile. Jaeger ranks 19th in the field in strokes gained approach, around-the-green, and putting combined. He has gained strokes on approach in 9 of his past 12 events, too.

Others to Consider:
Denny McCarthy ($12,000 | +1400) - 16th in the field in T2G and 2nd in putting.
Chris Kirk ($10,800 | +3500) - 6th T2G among the field.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,400 | +3000) - Good ball-striker.

Mid-Range Picks

Mark Hubbard ($9,200 | +6000) - A short hitter, Hubbard gets elevated at a course such as this one. He ranks first in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained: approach and is 45th in accuracy (115th in distance). Hubbard was T13 here a year ago and T41 in 2021. Getting access to the best iron player in the field is hard to pass up at a salary like this.

Beau Hossler ($9,100 | +5000) - While I don't like to target golfers with bad irons, if there's a week and a field to do it, this is an okay time to do it. Hossler is a really good golfer relative to this field. He ranks 18th in strokes gained: off the tee, 20th around the green, and 32nd in putting. Hossler has a T26 here in 2019 despite poor iron play. There's some risk here because of his approach play, yet we can also note that he striped it well at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Others to Consider:
Nick Taylor ($9,800 | +4000) - 2nd in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting.
Matt Kuchar ($9,600 | +4500) - Great course fit for Kuchar.
Adam Svensson ($9,300 | +6500) - Top-25 here two straight years; top-40 putter and T2G stats.

Low-Salaried Picks

Chez Reavie ($9,000 | +5500) - One of the best iron players in the field (4th), Reavie benefits from the short-ish course (135 in distance and 12th in accuracy). He is a top-tier putter, as well, giving him great stats in the two most important stats for upside.

Dylan Wu ($8,700 | +6500) - Wu is top-25 in both strokes gained: tee to green and putting, and that alone makes him a target in this salary range. He finished T43 here last year in his debut at the course while ranking first in the field in strokes gained: approach and 64th among cut-makers in putting. That's a combination to target.

Others to Consider:
Sam Stevens ($9,000 | +7500) - The simulation model likes him this week at this salary; 8th T2G.
Will Gordon ($8,800 | +9000) - 22nd in ball-striking; 118th in short game. Potential is there.
Akshay Bhatia ($8,700 | +11000) - Same thing as Gordon: 12th in ball-striking but 134th in short game.

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