GOLF
Rocket Mortgage Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

After a major and a designated event, the PGA Tour heads back to its regular-season roots with a modest field at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Just one of the top-10 golfers by the Official World Golf Rankings (Max Homa, who is 9th) is in the field, though we do have seven top-25 golfers in action.

We've seen Detroit Golf Club four times now, so we have a pretty good feel for what matters at this easy setup.

How does all of this impact our lineups this week? Let's dig in.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

72
Distance: 7,370 (average for a par 72)
Fairway Width: 35.8 yards (60th of 84 courses)
Average Green Size: 5,150 square feet (small: 86% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass/Poa
Stimpmeter: N/A
Recent Winning Scores: -26, -18, -23, -25
Recent Cut Lines: -3, -3, -5, -5
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained

Based on the past three winners here -- Tony Finau (2022), Cam Davis (2021), and Bryson DeChambeau (2020) -- you might think that this one is all about distance.

Throw in the runners-up -- Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young (2022); Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann (2021); Matthew Wolff (2020) -- and it seems like a foregone conclusion that distance is key.

But it really doesn't bear out in the stats that way. The par 3s and par 4s are really easy, and the par 5s are gettable, too.

So while distance is helpful (as it is at every course on the planet), it's not a prerequisite (and we saw Nate Lashley win here in 2019 with Doc Redman finishing runner-up).

You need to score by hitting greens in regulation and putting well (or gaining a lot of strokes around the green to help separate).

Put another way, it's a volatile week, and this weekend, it'll be anybody's game. (Unless, we're talking Money in the Bank. We already know whose game it is.)

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

These golfers have the best strokes gained averages (minimum two starts) in recent years at this course.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Course
SG:T/Rd
2022 2021 2020 2019
Tony Finau $11,900 2.46 1 - T53 -
Matt Wallace $8,200 1.84 T10 - T12 -
Stephan Jaeger $10,100 1.82 5 - - MC
Troy Merritt $7,300 1.61 T14 T2 T8 MC
Chris Kirk $10,200 1.61 T17 T12 T21 -
J.J. Spaun $9,100 1.54 T8 T32 T30 T13
Hideki Matsuyama $11,100 1.43 - W/D T21 T13
Nate Lashley $8,800 1.41 T57 MC MC 1
Charley Hoffman $8,000 1.32 T10 - - MC
Cam Davis $10,600 1.30 T14 1 MC MC
Sungjae Im $10,800 1.25 - T8 T53 T21
Lanto Griffin $7,500 1.21 - T25 T21 -
Sepp Straka $9,800 1.08 MC MC T8 T11
Henrik Norlander $7,100 1.02 T30 T38 T12 -
Brandt Snedeker $7,400 1.01 - T38 MC T5


Past winners in the field include Tony Finau (2022), Cam Davis (2021), and Nate Lashley (2019).

Win Simulations for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Collin
Morikawa
$11,800 6.4% 32.8% 78.4% +1400
Tony
Finau
$11,900 6.4% 37.3% 81.1% +1200
Rickie
Fowler
$12,000 6.3% 35.5% 80.3% +1400
Max
Homa
$11,400 4.6% 31.7% 77.6% +1800
Sungjae
Im
$10,800 4.5% 28.9% 75.4% +2200
Hideki
Matsuyama
$11,100 4.0% 23.5% 70.9% +1600
Keegan
Bradley
$10,700 3.6% 24.1% 71.3% +3000
Tom
Kim
$10,900 3.3% 25.7% 75.1% +2000
Justin
Thomas
$11,600 2.6% 19.5% 69.6% +1800
Byeong
Hun
An
$9,400 1.7% 11.4% 58.4% +4500
Ludvig
Aberg
$10,000 1.7% 14.3% 62.3% +5000
Taylor
Moore
$9,900 1.4% 16.1% 66.4% +6500
J.J.
Spaun
$9,100 1.4% 13.1% 62.0% +6000
Cameron
Davis
$10,600 1.4% 10.8% 56.7% +3300
Stephan
Jaeger
$10,100 1.4% 12.6% 61.7% +5000
Chris
Kirk
$10,200 1.3% 13.5% 63.6% +6000
Adam
Hadwin
$9,700 1.2% 12.9% 59.6% +6500
Brian
Harman
$10,400 1.2% 15.4% 65.6% +4500
Harris
English
$10,300 1.2% 11.9% 58.3% +5500
Sepp
Straka
$9,800 1.2% 10.4% 57.8% +5000
Aaron
Rai
$9,800 1.1% 11.0% 59.9% +6000
Alex
Smalley
$9,900 1.1% 11.8% 61.4% +6000
Justin
Suh
$9,400 1.1% 12.9% 59.6% +8000
Thomas
Detry
$8,700 1.1% 12.7% 59.1% +7000
Benjamin
Griffin
$8,300 1.1% 12.5% 58.8% +12000
Beau
Hossler
$9,200 1.1% 8.9% 57.1% +6500
Adam
Schenk
$9,000 1.1% 11.2% 57.2% +7500
Lee
Hodges
$8,500 1.0% 11.0% 56.5% +11000
Brendon
Todd
$9,200 1.0% 12.8% 59.7% +12000
Samuel
Stevens
$8,700 1.0% 9.3% 57.4% +7000
Gordon
Sargent
$9,100 1.0% 10.5% 58.6% +7500
Tom
Hoge
$9,600 1.0% 11.9% 58.4% +9000
Brandon
Wu
$9,500 0.9% 10.7% 58.4% +8000
Austin
Eckroat
$9,700 0.9% 9.3% 57.3% +5500
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$9,300 0.9% 11.9% 62.4% +11000
Doug
Ghim
$8,900 0.9% 8.1% 52.1% +9000
Ryan
Palmer
$8,900 0.8% 8.9% 55.3% +9000
Alex
Noren
$8,900 0.8% 12.1% 61.3% +12000
Mark
Hubbard
$8,800 0.8% 10.7% 58.1% +9000
Joseph
Bramlett
$9,000 0.8% 9.7% 58.4% +7500
Seonghyeon
Kim
$8,600 0.7% 7.3% 54.4% +10000
William
Gordon
$8,400 0.7% 8.0% 51.3% +12000
Adam
Svensson
$8,600 0.7% 8.2% 55.1% +12000
Ben
Martin
$8,300 0.7% 7.9% 51.9% +17000
Sam
Ryder
$8,200 0.6% 9.5% 58.3% +22000
Matthew
NeSmith
$8,400 0.6% 6.7% 49.5% +15000
Akshay
Bhatia
$8,600 0.6% 7.0% 51.5% +12000
Davis
Riley
$9,300 0.6% 6.2% 48.5% +10000
Dylan
Wu
$8,200 0.6% 7.5% 52.6% +12000
Nicolai
Hojgaard
$9,500 0.5% 6.3% 49.3% +9000
Taylor
Pendrith
$9,000 0.5% 6.3% 48.8% +8000
Nate
Lashley
$8,800 0.5% 7.1% 53.4% +12000
Luke
List
$8,400 0.5% 5.6% 46.2% +15000
Patton
Kizzire
$8,200 0.5% 5.4% 45.7% +22000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

The odds this week are pretty tight and efficient. This is about as long a list as I ever get for golfers with at least a 0.5% win probability, so it's a lot of options chipping away the win equity without anyone in particular going out and grabbing some of their own.

At the top of the board, I'd keep an eye on Collin Morikawa and Rickie Fowler to see if they get to 16/1 or longer. With the Tuesday morning odds, the best value among the favorites is the straight-hitting Sungjae Im at +2200.

The model doesn't mind Keegan Bradley (+3000), but he'd have to go back-to-back, and I don't love banking on that.

A dart on J.J. Spaun (+6000) and Lee Hodges (+11000) apiece is viable, as well, but this one is wide open this week, and the odds aren't doing much to let us pick and choose our spots.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Tony Finau (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +1200) - This is a rare situation where the betting favorite is not the highest-salaried golfer of the week, though it's not like there's a huge gap in salary between Finau and Rickie Fowler ($12,000). It's noteworthy, though. Finau, the defending champion, is second in the field in overall ball-striking and is more accurate (64th) than you probably realize for his distance off the tee (which might be worse than you realize: 43rd). The dominant tee-to-green game is backed up with neutral putting and gives him a high-floor once again.

Sungjae Im ($10,800 | +2200) - It's been a minute since Sungjae really popped, but this is a great setup for him at a course that doesn't demand pounding driver. Im ranks 97th in this field in distance but is 18th in fairways gained while ultimately ranking top-20 in three of the four strokes gained stats. The problem is that the one he's weak in is approach, and that's vital. However, Im is due for positive putting regression even with his great baseline, and the neutral irons overall are mostly just bogged down by a handful of bad events.

Others to Consider:
Rickie Fowler ($12,000 | +1400) - Field-best SG:total average past 50 rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100 | +1600) - 5th in ball-striking with average underlying putting splits.
Chris Kirk ($10,200 | +6000) - Good all-around game for the salary.

Mid-Range Picks

Aaron Rai ($9,800 | +7500) - This one is a bit scary for one reason: putting. Aaron Rai's tee-to-green game isn't under the microscope. In fact, he's 6th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green while ranking 27th or better in all three individual tee-to-green stats. But he's 116th in putting and is doing so with very underwhelming (24th-percentile) splits from within 15 feet. He's actually due for some regression based on how few long putts he's holed, but that still leaves room to be desired. In spite of all of this, Rai sets up to dominate the mid-range options with his ball-striking.

J.J. Spaun ($9,100 | +7000) - Without much in the way of course history, not many guys have a lot of experience at Detroit Golf Club on the PGA Tour rotation. Spaun does. He has started all four events and has made all four cuts, most recently finishing T8 in 2022 and finishing 32nd or better in the other three starts. Spaun's current game -- 26th in ball striking and 28th around the green -- should have him set up well again here.

Others to Consider:
Ludvig Aberg ($10,000 | +5000) - Mega potential -- but safer plays exist.
Austin Eckroat ($9,700 | +5500) - Early returns show a strong all-around game relative to this field.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,300 | +9000) - Gets a bump without needed distance; 16th in approach-through-putting SG.

Low-Salaried Picks

Mark Hubbard ($8,800 | +8000) - Hubbard is just the type of golfer with a particular profile that suits certain courses. He's short off the tee (123rd) but has top-50 accuracy and top-5 iron play over the past 50 rounds. Hubbard has gained strokes via approach play in nine consecutive measured events, and he's a positive putter with good supporting underlying data.

Dylan Wu ($8,200 | +17000) - Wu has a great upside profile: top-20 irons and top-35 putting, which are the two stats that can lead to the biggest strokes gained jumps in a particular week. He's more accurate than he is long off the tee, which doesn't hurt this week. Wu's game has been up and down, but this is the right type of week for him to flash top-25 upside. He's been top-32 or better in four of his past seven starts and missed the cut in the others.

Others to Consider:
Adam Schenk ($9,000 | +9000) - Top-10 putter and solid ball striker.
Lee Hodges ($8,500 | +12000) - Balanced profile and accurate driver.
Ben Griffin ($8,300 | +12000) - Some of the best short game in the field.

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