RBC Canadian Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
Not only is this a week bookended by designated events (yet not a designated event itself), but the 2023 RBC Canadian Open is heading to Oakdale Golf & Country Club, a first-time PGA Tour host.
That means the field is a step down from the other events we'll have in June (just two of the top 10 are in the field), and everyone is more or less on a level playing field in terms of course familiarity.
Then again, we'll have less info about the course itself and how it plays, so we have to make some assumptions.
How does that impact our lineups this week? What do we need to know about the course? Let's dig in.
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Oakdale Golf & Country Club Club Course Info & Key Stats
Distance: 7,264 (short for a par 72)
Fairway Width: N/A
Average Green Size: 6,000 square feet (average)
Green Type: Bentgrass / Poa annua
Recent Winning Scores: N/A
Recent Cut Lines: N/A
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Total Strokes Gained, Birdie or Better Rate
The RBC Canadian Open rotates courses often, and this week, we get the debut of Oakdale Golf & Country Club. The course will again host the event in 2026, yet the lack of information about it makes for a who-could-say sort of situation about which stats ultimately matter.
Based on the scorecard, we've got five pretty short par 4s with three long par 4s. The par 5s are short-to-average, so we can likely find shorter hitters toward the top of the leaderboard.
There look to be multiple forced layup situations, which likely means driving distance is not a deciding stat.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
This is a first-time course host.
Win Simulations for the RBC Canadian Open
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the RBC Canadian Open
I'm not seeing a ton of great value, but I do like Tyrrell Hatton (+1100) as someone who is second in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting, which seems like the right angle this week. Hatton is in great overall form and is about as "due" for a breakthrough win as anyone can be. It's a great setup and a fine number at 11/1.
I'm also into Sahith Theegala (+3000) -- finally. Theegala, a fan favorite, is starting to lose some of that steam, and his number is back to where it should be for a change, so I'll take the opportunity to get in on Theegala, whose irons and putter are really great. That makes for a high-upside profile, as those are the two stats where you can gain the most strokes each week.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the RBC Canadian Open
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Tyrrell Hatton (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf betting odds: +1100) - There is no shortage of reasons to roster Rory McIlroy, who is looking to make it three straight Canadian Open wins (in 2019 and 2022 after two years off due to the COVID-19 pandemic), though as a reminder: there have been no PGA Tour events at Oakdale until this week. Hatton, though, comes at an $600 discount in salary and is likely a good course fit given the driving requirements for the week. Hatton actually leads McIlroy in strokes gained: approach through putting (though McIlroy is third over the past 50 rounds there, to be fair to him). Either is a great starting point, but Hatton shouldn't be overlooked.
Justin Rose ($11,100 | +1800) - Team Rose sets up well this week, assuming driving stats aren't super vital. Rose leads the field in strokes gained: approach through putting over the past 50 rounds on Tour, and he is 32nd in driving accuracy, which should help out a good bit. He's a very similar profile right now to Hatton yet comes at an $700 discount himself. While it's hard to go wrong with anyone at $11,000 or higher, Rose comes at the bottom of that tier and is set up for success.
Eric Cole ($9,800 | +6000) - Cole is trending up in a big way lately. A lot of it has to do with a good short game, but the irons are there, too. He's gained strokes from approach play in 12 of his past 13 measured events. The driving isn't a strength, and that goes into the angle I'm assuming for the week. Cole was T24 at the Memorial last week after missing the cut at the Charles Schwab -- which followed a T15 at the PGA Championship and a T23 at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Nick Taylor ($9,600 | +7000) - Top-30 in approach, around-the-green, and putting strokes gained, Taylor also has the Canadian angle for him entering this week. Taylor has missed two straight cuts, yet the long-term data -- as mentioned -- is still quite good overall. He's the best value in my stats-only model among the $9,000 range for the week.
Alex Smalley ($9,000 | +7500) - Top-15 irons are what we get from Smalley for a salary of just $9,000, and he's -- overall -- 12th in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 50 rounds. Smalley missed the cut last week at the Memorial with awful short game, and a T40 at the Charles Schwab Challenge was in spite of bad putting. With (barely) positive putting, Smalley finished T23 at the PGA Championship and T18 at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Ben Griffin ($8,400 | +6500) - [Editor's note: Griffin has withdrawn.] Griffin's ball-striking is just okay (82nd), but he's 8th in overall short game. Griffin isn't particularly accurate off the tee (103rd), which could be an issue, yet the long-term strokes gained numbers are good overall in spite of that, and my win simulation model likes Griffin's chances (1.3%) more than anyone else's in the sub-$9,000 range.