GOLF
Charles Schwab Challenge: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
A week after a major, the PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club, a course that features tight fairways and small greens. Who can we roster in DFS?

A grueling major test at Oak Hill last week for the PGA Championship could have some lingering effects on a portion of the field that teed it up last week.

This week, the PGA Tour is back to a familiar course: Colonial Country Club.

Three of the world's top 10 and 10 of the top 25 are in the field for this week in Fort Worth, Texas.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

7th of 80)
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small; PGA average: ~6,000)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12-13
Recent Winning Scores: -9, -14, -15, -13, -20
Recent Cut Lines: +1, +1, -2, +2, +2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Total Strokes Gained, Birdie or Better Rate

It's a pretty short overall course this week at Colonial, but it's headlined by tight fairways, the seventh-narrowest of any on the PGA Tour. Until last year, winning scores were at least double-digits under par.

The small greens and narrow fairways don't necessarily lead to super scoring conditions, and the par 5s are generally tough.

Overall, we need some ball-striking and putting.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Course
SG:T/Rd
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Jordan
Spieth
$11,800 2.10 7 2 10 8 32
Tony
Finau
$11,600 2.09 4 20 23 2 -
Justin
Rose
$10,600 1.72 MC 20 3 58 1
Collin
Morikawa
$11,300 1.67 40 14 2 - -
Brendon
Todd
$9,600 1.59 3 8 MC - -
Viktor
Hovland
$11,500 1.40 21 - 23 - -
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$9,700 1.18 15 - MC - -
Emiliano
Grillo
$9,400 1.15 63 8 MC 19 3
Andrew
Putnam
$8,700 1.01 15 MC MC 3 20
Brian
Harman
$10,000 1.00 MC 8 23 31 14
Sungjae
Im
$11,000 0.96 15 MC 10 MC -
Max
Homa
$10,800 0.94 23 - MC 27 -
Cam
Davis
$10,100 0.89 7 45 MC - -
Scottie
Scheffler
$12,000 0.86 2 MC 55 - -


Past winners in the field include Sam Burns (2022), Justin Rose (2018), Kevin Kisner (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Chris Kirk (2015), Zach Johnson (2010 and 2012), and Rory Sabbatini (2007).

Win Simulations for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Scottie
Scheffler
$12,00015.7%58.7%90.3%+450
Tony
Finau
$11,6006.2%40.2%79.5%+1400
Collin
Morikawa
$11,3005.0%31.8%72.0%+1800
Viktor
Hovland
$11,5004.8%29.5%70.5%+1400
Sungjae
Im
$11,0004.8%31.4%74.6%+2000
Jordan
Spieth
$11,8004.4%27.1%69.7%+1200
Max
Homa
$10,8003.8%31.7%75.2%+2200
Justin
Rose
$10,6002.8%25.0%68.7%+3000
Tommy
Fleetwood
$10,5002.4%22.4%67.9%+3000
Rickie
Fowler
$10,7002.2%20.8%66.5%+3000
Russell
Henley
$10,4002.0%18.9%64.3%+4500
Denny
McCarthy
$9,9001.9%20.8%66.4%+7500
Brendon
Todd
$9,6001.8%20.3%64.0%+8000
Sam
Burns
$10,9001.8%16.1%58.3%+2200
Chris
Kirk
$10,2001.7%16.0%62.6%+5500
Si Woo
Kim
$10,3001.5%15.7%62.3%+5000
Andrew
Putnam
$8,7001.2%17.5%63.2%+15000
Kyoung-hoon
Lee
$9,9001.1%14.0%58.9%+8000
Cameron
Davis
$10,1001.1%11.6%52.8%+4500
Brian
Harman
$10,0001.1%13.0%57.1%+6000
Taylor
Moore
$9,3001.0%13.7%58.2%+8000
J.J.
Spaun
$9,1001.0%12.1%53.5%+10000
Nick
Taylor
$8,8001.0%12.6%58.2%+12000
Tom
Hoge
$9,7001.0%12.8%56.0%+6500
Kurt
Kitayama
$9,8000.9%10.8%51.2%+7500
Hayden
Buckley
$9,5000.9%11.2%52.7%+12000
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$9,7000.9%12.3%57.7%+9000
J.T.
Poston
$9,0000.9%11.2%54.8%+11000
Patrick
Rodgers
$9,5000.8%10.8%54.1%+9000
Stephan
Jaeger
$9,6000.8%10.2%54.9%+7000
Emiliano
Grillo
$9,4000.7%8.9%49.5%+10000
Ryan
Fox
$9,3000.7%9.8%50.1%+8000
Benjamin
Griffin
$8,2000.7%10.5%50.7%+15000
Min Woo
Lee
$9,8000.7%8.3%47.3%+6500
Thomas
Detry
$9,0000.7%9.2%48.3%+8000
Beau
Hossler
$8,7000.7%7.4%49.7%+10000
Harris
English
$9,2000.6%8.6%48.1%+8000
Scott
Stallings
$8,6000.6%8.5%48.0%+15000
Ben
Martin
$8,2000.6%8.0%46.7%+17000
Lucas
Herbert
$8,8000.6%6.8%42.9%+8000
Alex
Noren
$8,5000.6%9.8%54.4%+15000
Eric
Cole
$8,7000.5%8.0%48.8%+11000
Ryan
Palmer
$8,8000.5%6.1%43.1%+12000
Alex
Smalley
$9,2000.5%7.4%47.1%+10000
Sam
Ryder
$8,0000.5%11.0%55.3%+25000
Aaron
Rai
$8,7000.5%6.8%47.2%+22000
Justin
Suh
$9,0000.5%9.4%50.4%+10000
Robby
Shelton IV
$8,2000.5%7.9%48.0%+20000
Maverick
McNealy
$8,9000.5%8.4%50.7%+10000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge

As a heavy favorite, Scottie Scheffler isn't showing any particular value in my model for the week despite having a better win chance than any other two golfers combined. He's also nearly as likely to win as the next three names combined.

An even value exists for Sungjae Im at +2000, and he's got two top-15s in his past three attempts at Colonial. He fits from an accuracy standpoint, as well.

The early returns just aren't that promising in terms of pure value.

Long shots Denny McCarthy (+7500) and Brendon Todd (+8000) are boosted pretty substantially at this course and are, thus, rating out well in the simulation model. The same can be said about Andrew Putnam (+15000).

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +400) - There's one clear standout superstar in the field from a daily fantasy standpoint, and it's Scheffler, who was one golfer away from a playoff for the PGA Championship. Scheffler's putting is not particularly great right now, and the putting splits from 5 to 10 feet (a predictive range) are also just average. Scheffler's gaining 2.87 true strokes per round from his tee-to-green game over the past 50 rounds, which is 0.94 strokes per round better than any other golfer in this field.

Sungjae Im ($11,000 | +2000) - With a stacked Tier 2 behind Scheffler, it's likely we'll get Sungjae Im overlooked. He has strong putting splits from 5 to 10 feet and is accurate (5th) off the tee. The irons are not elite (56th) right now, yet he does help save us salary from the second tier guys while also giving us access to big-time win equity.

Others to Consider:
Jordan Spieth ($11,800 | +1200)
Viktor Hovland ($11,500 | +1400)
Justin Rose ($10,600 | +3000)
Russell Henley ($10,400 | +4500)

Mid-Range Picks

Denny McCarthy ($9,900 | +7500) - Quietly, McCarthy is playing some good golf -- by the results, at least. He was T29 at the PGA Championship, T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, T11 in the team event (Zurich), and T25 at the RBC Heritage. Now, he's not a great ball-striker (41st), but he's also not terrible there. This course suits him and his short game (14th) well.

Brendon Todd ($9,600 | +8000) - For the most part, McCarthy and Todd go hand-in-hand. Todd's got consecutive top-10 finishes at Colonial. He's got the field's best combined short game yet is 91st in combined ball-striking. He's 11th in accuracy, though, so he loses a lot of strokes off the tee from distance -- something that is forgivable this week.

Others to Consider:
Taylor Moore ($9,300 | +8000)
J.J. Spaun ($9,100 | +10000)

Low-Salaried Picks

Nick Taylor ($8,800 | +12000) - Taylor has a balanced profile for this field: 58th off the tee, 51st in approach, 22nd around the green, and 30th in putting. He's coming off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship and doesn't have a ton of recent starts under his belt but is an all-around golfer with a lot of experience at Colonial -- not that it's all good. It's a strong value profile, though.

Andrew Putnam ($8,700 | +15000) - Putnam has the best win odds in my model among the value tier, so it's no wonder that I like him. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship last week but had gained at least 1.12 strokes per round from approach alone in three events leading into it. We've seen him finish top-20 in three starts at Colonial -- while missing the cut in the other two.

Others to Consider:
J.T. Poston ($9,000 | +11000)
Eric Cole ($8,700 | +11000)
Ben Martin ($8,200 | +17000)

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