GOLF
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
The field this week features no sure things, so how does that affect the daily fantasy golf landscape at Port Royal Golf Course?

A week after a stellar field with a no-cut setup, the PGA Tour's fall season swings more toward the usual suspects for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course.

Just one golfer in the field is inside the world's top 50 (Seamus Power), and just one more is inside the top 75 (Adrian Meronk).

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

6,828 (short: ~500 yards longer than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 2.8 fairway acre/1,000 yard ratio (narrow; PGA average is 4.2)
Average Green Size: 6,000 (average: 98% of PGA Tour average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -15, -15, -24
Past 5 Cut Lines: E, +1, -2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better, Adjusted Strokes Gained (to account for international players without PGA Tour samples)

Heavy winds have kept the winning scores and overall scoring down from what we saw initially for this event, which took a -24 score to get the win. Last year, there was actually a five-minute delay due to the wind.

We don't know exactly what leads to scoring here due to a lack of ShotLink data, but we do at least know that the short course and narrower-than-average fairways lead to a de-emphasis on driving distance. That said, golfers who finish well here either excel in fairways hit that week -- or gain distance. So, that's why I'm going strokes gained: off the tee.

The winner last year, Lucas Herbert, ranked 59th in greens in regulation, though, so it's possible to putt the lights out here and get a win, but the long-term sample is good for those who can simply hit the greens in regulation.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best strokes gained averages among golfers with at least two of three starts include:

- Brian Gay (+2.98: 3rd, 1st, 12th)
- Russell Knox (+2.07: 11th, 16th, 12th)
- Peter Malnati (+2.02: 21st, 7th)
- Kramer Hickok (+1.90: 15th, 8th, 30th)
- David Hearn (+1.90: 8th, 8th, 39th)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.82: 15th, 4th, 39th)
- Hank Lebioda (+1.70: 3rd, 16th, cut)
- Seamus Power (+1.32: 31st, 37th, 12th)
- Ryan Armour (+1.32: 8th, 8th, 67th)

Additonally, Harry Higgs finished runner-up in the 2020 season in his lone start. Chesson Hadley was 16th in 2021. Chad Ramey and Justin Lower were 17th last year.

The only past winner in the field is Brian Gay (2021 season).

Win Simulations for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Denny
McCarthy
$12,0005.5%34.4%83.6%+1600
Seamus
Power
$11,4004.6%27.6%77.6%+2000
Adrian
Meronk
$11,8003.5%23.1%73.6%+2200
Nick
Hardy
$10,5003.0%19.5%69.1%+2200
Stephan
Jaeger
$10,3002.7%18.3%68.9%+3700
Mark
Hubbard
$11,6002.6%20.4%76.9%+2400
Adam
Long
$10,0002.5%20.3%75.3%+3700
Aaron
Rai
$10,4002.5%20.6%76.4%+2800
Thomas
Detry
$11,7002.2%17.5%71.4%+2000
Brandon
Wu
$9,8002.0%15.0%65.5%+3300
Alex
Smalley
$10,9001.9%18.6%74.8%+3100
Adam
Schenk
$9,9001.9%14.5%64.3%+4500
Nick
Taylor
$10,1001.7%16.1%68.1%+3700
Patrick
Rodgers
$11,0001.7%18.0%74.3%+2800
Russell
Knox
$11,2001.7%16.4%72.0%+2900
Doug
Ghim
$9,3001.7%13.6%63.1%+6500
Tyler
Duncan
$8,9001.6%12.6%62.6%+6500
Benjamin
Griffin
$9,1001.6%12.7%62.2%+12000
Seonghyeon
Kim
$10,6001.5%15.7%71.4%+3100
MJ
Daffue
$8,7001.5%12.9%64.0%+8000
Justin
Lower
$10,8001.5%15.5%71.2%+2400
William
Gordon
$9,9001.4%12.4%64.2%+4200
Scott
Piercy
$8,9001.4%12.3%62.2%+8000
Callum
Tarren
$9,8001.4%15.3%69.0%+4100
Sam
Ryder
$8,8001.4%14.0%70.1%+4500
Ryan
Armour
$8,8001.4%12.9%65.0%+6500
Marty
Dou
Zecheng
$9,0001.4%12.9%64.4%+5000
Luke
Donald
$8,4001.4%11.2%62.5%+11000
Robby
Shelton
IV
$10,2001.3%14.0%68.0%+3300
Greyson
Sigg
$10,7001.3%14.4%70.4%+4000
Austin
Cook
$8,0001.2%10.0%60.3%+12000
Ben
Martin
$8,5001.2%10.9%59.7%+12000
Chesson
Hadley
$9,6001.1%10.8%60.1%+4500
Austin
Smotherman
$9,7001.1%10.4%59.0%+9500
Robert
Streb
$8,2001.1%9.5%60.0%+11000
C.T.
Pan
$9,2001.0%10.7%61.7%+6500
Lucas
Glover
$9,1001.0%11.4%66.0%+5000
Nate
Lashley
$8,5001.0%11.0%66.0%+9500
Hank
Lebioda
$8,9001.0%10.0%60.0%+8000
Michael
Kim
$8,0000.9%10.1%64.9%+12000
Cameron
Percy
$9,4000.9%10.8%65.9%+5000
Michael
Gligic
$9,5000.9%10.6%65.0%+6000
Byeong
Hun
An
$9,5000.9%10.9%62.9%+5000
Augusto
Nunez
$8,6000.9%10.3%63.6%+10000
Erik
Barnes
$7,1000.9%9.8%61.1%+16000
Vaughn
Taylor
$7,6000.8%8.8%59.6%+14000
Erik
van
Rooyen
$9,6000.8%8.8%63.8%+6000
David
Lingmerth
$7,4000.7%8.8%58.5%+19000
Brice
Garnett
$8,5000.7%8.9%63.6%+9500
Matti
Schmid
$8,6000.7%8.2%54.8%+11000
Charley
Hoffman
$8,7000.7%6.5%51.4%+8000
Aaron
Baddeley
$8,0000.7%6.8%50.8%+17000
Benjamin
Taylor
$9,4000.7%9.3%62.5%+8000
Matthias
Schwab
$8,4000.7%9.1%62.6%+8000
Chad
Ramey
$8,1000.7%7.5%56.9%+8000
Garrick
Higgo
$8,2000.7%6.3%51.2%+5000
Kramer
Hickok
$8,6000.6%7.8%61.1%+8000
Harrison
Endycott
$8,3000.6%6.5%52.3%+12000
Kevin
Roy
$8,4000.6%7.3%56.8%+14000
Nicolas
Echavarria
$7,0000.6%6.1%50.3%+19000
Joseph
Bramlett
$8,6000.6%8.0%62.5%+5000
Brian
Stuard
$8,1000.5%9.3%62.7%+9500
Austin
Eckroat
$9,7000.5%9.1%62.7%+9500
Eric
Cole
$7,8000.5%6.3%50.5%+28000
Sean
O'Hair
$7,8000.5%6.4%53.8%+21000
Harry
Hall
$9,3000.5%8.9%62.1%+5000
Philip
Knowles
$8,7000.5%5.8%53.6%+19000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

The two favorites -- Denny McCarthy and Seamus Power -- are close to fair values. My model has McCarthy at 17/1 instead of 16/1 and Power at 21/1 instead of 20/1. I don't mind starting the card with either of them and would likely just lean McCarthy.

There are some lean recommendations on Adam Long (+3700), Stephan Jaeger (+3700), Doug Ghim (+6500), and Tyler Duncan (+6500) as well as on true long shots Scott Piercy (+8000) and MJ Daffue (+8000).

The best top-10 bets are McCarthy (+230), Adam Long (+490), and Ben Griffin (+1200).

The best first-round leader values are Ghim (+6500), Brandon Wu (+6000), Griffin (+9500), Akshay Bhatia (+16000), and Luke Donald (+8000). Small-unit swipes here are viable at such long returns.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Denny McCarthy (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +1600) - The favorite in my simulation model, McCarthy has a pretty noticeable edge on the rest of the field based on the simulations, though it's not nearly as certain as we see with some favorites. He's in the 5% to 6% range; last week, Rory McIlroy was in the 13% range. Still, McCarthy won't be at a distance disadvantage at this course, given the setup, and he's the best golfer in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting. He's used that to make all three cuts here and has two straight top-15 results at this course.

Mark Hubbard ($11,600 | +2400) - Mark Hubbard is really good at golf but just isn't a long hitter (102nd in distance over the past 50 rounds even against this field). But he ranks seventh in strokes gained: ball-striking despite that lack of distance, primarily because he's seventh in strokes gained: approach. Hubbard is a plus in accuracy (1.4% over the field average in his past 50 rounds), and he has some decent win equity in the model, as well.

Others to Consider:
Thomas Detry ($11,700 | +1600) - Long off the tee (9th) and a great putter (6th); that's an upside combo at a course that can be overpowered.
Aaron Rai ($10,400 | +2800) - Hyper accurate (1st) and 15th in ball-striking; T20 at Shriner's and T36 at ZOZO this season.
Robby Shelton ($10,200 | +3300) - Ranks 16th in approach, 5th around the green, and 13th in putting; 21st, 61st, and 15th to start the season.

Mid-Range Picks

Adam Long ($10,000 | +5000) - With a balanced build, we can get some pretty interesting names in our lineups this week. That would include, for me, Adam Long. Long is ninth in total strokes gained average over the past 50 rounds. He's putting really well, but that's sort of his game. He also is one of the more accurate drivers (13th) in the field, and a lack of distance (103rd) will negatively impact a lot of ball-striking stats over the long-term. He's ultimately 15th in strokes gained: approach despite the length problems.

Chesson Hadley ($9,600 | +6000) - Hadley's game is predicated on two key stats: strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: putting. Those are the two stats in which you can gain the most strokes in a week, so it's a high-upside combination. Unfortunately for Hadley, he has been on the wrong end of variance to start the season (cut, cut, T37). However, that comes with great iron play in two of those starts, and with the distance angle this week (that can help but isn't a must), he should be more neutral off the tee and thus get a boost elsewhere.

Others to Consider:
Will Gordon ($9,900 | +4200) - Three top-fives (including a win) in final five Korn Ferry events last year; T36, T30, T44 with good ball-striking on PGA Tour this season.
Michael Gligic ($9,500 | +6000) - Missed two of three cuts this year but had bad putting; T53 and T11 at Port Royal in his career.
Doug Ghim ($9,300 | +6500) - 30th in T2G and 11th in accuracy; should be a good fit for him; T14 here last year.

Low-Salaried Picks

Sam Ryder ($8,800 | +5500) - I like Sam Ryder often, and I'll be there this week. He's 11th in approach and 28th in putting over the past 50 rounds, and that comes with 31st-ranked accuracy off the tee. Ryder has gained strokes from approach play in four straight events, yet those haven't led to any top-25s. Put that level of ball-striking in a field like this, and it should lead to better results.

Nate Lashley ($8,500 | +9500) - Lashley doesn't excel at any particular stat (aside from sitting 15th in accuracy), but he's the only golfer to rank top-40 in both strokes gained: ball-striking and strokes gained: short-game. That's a pretty tame cutoff, but the point here is that there isn't a lot of balance in this field; it's more specialists. Lashley's all-around game has some appeal as a risk/reward option at $8,500.

Others to Consider:
Ryan Armour ($8,800 | +6500) - Put him on the menu when accuracy off the tee can work (2nd); 53rd in T2G the past 50 rounds.
Austin Cook ($8,000 | +12000) - Is 122nd in distance but 36th in accuracy; ultimately, he's 13th in strokes gained: approach through putting.

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