GOLF

John Deere Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

TPC Deere Run will host a PGA Tour event opposite some competition in Portland. The field is a solid one but one that won't be confused with a major.

Of course, that doesn't ever matter for those of us who build daily fantasy lineups and bet the action. The bets still pay out even if a few extra stars are absent, so it's important that we keep focused even in events such as this one.

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

TPC Deere Run Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 71
Distance: 7,289 (average: ~10 yards shorter than the average par 71)
Fairway Acres/Yard: 3.8 (average: PGA average is 4.1)
Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (a little small: 93% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12
Past 5 Winning Scores (Event): -19, -21, -27*, -18, -22,
Past 5 Cut Lines (Event): -4, -3, -3, -2, -3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate

TPC Deere Run is pretty standard overall: average length overall, average width, nearly average green sizes. So, how do we adjust from there?

Well, one thing that stands out is the scoring: the past five cut lines are all at least -2, and the past five winners were at least -18. A note on that -27 hanging up there: Michael Kim set the course record three iterations ago.

One thing that jumps out is that strokes gained: around the green don't seem to matter as much as usual. Why? Well, the greens are about average in size, and if you're trying to get up-and-down, then you're not scoring enough birdies.

Another note: it's easy to lag putt here. DataGolf shows TPC Deere Run as the fourth-easiest place on Tour to putt from 15-plus feet.

Though there has been "extensive" bunker work done since last year, I'm not going to be factoring it in at all.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best golfers at TPC Deere Run among those in the field with at least eight rounds (via datagolf) are Brandt Snedeker (+1.66), Steve Stricker (+1.65), Zach Johnson (+1.49), Adam Hadwin (+1.49), Adam Schenk (+1.44), Scott Brown (+1.28), Patton Kizzire (+1.03), Sam Ryder (+0.99), Ryan Moore (+0.98), Charles Howell (+0.92), and Maverick McNealy (+0.86).

Win Simulations for the John Deere Classic

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Webb
Simpson
$12,0005.9%30.6%74.7%+1000
Adam
Hadwin
$11,7004.3%25.8%72.9%+1800
Lanto
Griffin
$9,4003.5%19.8%65.2%+5500
Scott
Stallings
$10,6003.4%18.5%60.6%+2900
Denny
McCarthy
$11,2003.2%24.3%74.0%+2900
Maverick
McNealy
$11,1003.0%24.2%74.0%+2900
Jason
Day
$11,4002.6%17.3%62.6%+2200
Sahith
Theegala
$11,5002.6%16.3%62.1%+2200
Charles
Howell III
$10,8002.5%19.0%69.4%+2900
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$10,1002.3%20.6%70.8%+3300
Brendon
Todd
$10,9002.2%18.5%69.3%+3100
Martin
Laird
$9,7002.2%18.9%68.9%+5000
Adam
Long
$10,5001.9%17.5%68.9%+3300
David
Lipsky
$9,1001.7%13.6%59.5%+6500
Chez
Reavie
$9,5001.7%14.8%62.6%+5000
Adam
Svensson
$9,8001.6%13.4%59.6%+4500
Alex
Smalley
$9,2001.5%15.1%65.0%+5500
Tyler
Duncan
$8,7001.5%11.3%53.4%+8000
J.T.
Poston
$10,2001.4%12.9%60.6%+4200
Adam
Schenk
$9,3001.4%11.9%57.5%+5500
Taylor
Pendrith
$9,3001.4%15.6%65.8%+5500
C.T.
Pan
$9,7001.4%13.9%63.1%+5000
Patrick
Rodgers
$10,7001.4%14.1%64.3%+2900
Kevin
Streelman
$9,9001.4%12.6%63.1%+4500
Cameron
Davis
$10,3001.3%13.7%63.4%+3700
Hayden
Buckley
$8,5001.3%10.1%53.9%+9500
Taylor
Moore
$8,4001.2%12.0%58.6%+9500
Lucas
Glover
$9,9001.2%11.2%60.0%+4500
Robert
Streb
$7,9001.2%8.3%51.5%+16000
Mark
Hubbard
$9,0001.2%13.0%63.7%+6500
Sam
Ryder
$8,1001.0%10.7%57.0%+12000
Ryan
Armour
$8,8001.0%11.2%61.0%+8000
Chad
Ramey
$8,6001.0%10.7%57.0%+8000
Anirban
Lahiri
$9,4001.0%11.3%60.4%+5500
Doug
Ghim
$9,5000.9%11.4%61.6%+5500
Matthias
Schwab
$8,5000.9%10.5%59.5%+9500
Nick
Taylor
$8,6000.9%9.9%58.2%+8000
Michael
Thompson
$8,3000.9%9.6%56.1%+9500
Harry
Higgs
$8,0000.9%7.9%46.6%+16000
Stephan
Jaeger
$8,2000.9%9.3%54.4%+11000
Andrew
Putnam
$8,6000.9%10.6%60.1%+8000
Lee
Hodges
$8,7000.8%8.7%50.7%+8000
Brian
Stuard
$7,8000.8%9.8%58.8%+16000
Cameron
Champ
$10,0000.8%9.2%57.6%+4000
Rory
Sabbatini
$8,4000.8%10.6%59.3%+9500
Zach
Johnson
$8,8000.8%7.8%56.2%+8000
Nate
Lashley
$8,9000.7%9.5%58.0%+8000
John
Huh
$9,8000.7%9.8%59.0%+4500
Nick
Hardy
$10,4000.7%7.5%52.3%+2900
Emiliano
Grillo
$9,6000.7%7.9%52.4%+5000
Dylan
Frittelli
$9,6000.7%7.3%53.5%+5000
Hank
Lebioda
$9,0000.7%8.5%53.9%+7000
Austin
Smotherman
$8,3000.7%7.4%51.1%+10000
Patton
Kizzire
$9,1000.6%8.8%56.3%+6500
William
McGirt
$7,5000.6%7.5%54.3%+21000
Greyson
Sigg
$8,1000.6%7.4%53.1%+12000
Ryan
Moore
$8,9000.5%7.4%54.4%+8000
Scott
Piercy
$8,3000.5%6.8%49.0%+11000
Chase
Seiffert
$7,9000.5%5.2%43.6%+16000
Kramer
Hickok
$8,8000.5%6.3%51.2%+8000
Roger
Sloan
$7,6000.5%5.5%45.6%+21000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the John Deere Classic

With all the withdrawals, the odds board has been shuffled up a lot. Webb Simpson is on the upward trajectory, and I like him even at +1000 odds.

Further down the board, two names really jump out: Maverick McNealy and Scott Stallings. Both pass the stats test for this week and both are offered at solid odds this week in the second tier.

Chez Reavie, Lanto Griffin, Austin Smotherman, and Sam Ryder are all in play for top-10s and top-20s, but it's not a bad week to bet long shots in a field that should feature low scoring and no superstars.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the John Deere Classic

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Webb Simpson (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1000) - Webb is the best golfer in the field, and his salary reflects that. That said, the upside is pretty real. Simpson's long-term ball-striking rates in the 98th percentile, and he's a 92nd-percentile bentgrass putter. Accurate off the tee, Simpson should fit TPC Deere Run well in his return for the first time since 2010.

Scott Stallings ($10,600 | +3300) - Stallings' irons have been hot often in recent weeks. He has gained at least 4.5 strokes from approach play in three of his past five measured events, so we can buy in, and he has generated 85th-percentile bentgrass putting splits over the past 50 rounds with great underlying putting data. Stallings has played a lot of rounds at TPC Deere Run in his career and is in great form at the moment.

Others to Consider:
Adam Hadwin ($11,700 | +1800) - Good course form and fit and accurate off the tee.
Maverick McNealy ($11,100 | +2900) - Great irons and the best birdie-maker in the field.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($10,100 | +3300) - Boosted on a fairway-finder's course; elite putting should lead to increased birdie rate.

Mid-Range Picks

Chez Reavie ($9,500 | +5000) - If we're looking for golfers who benefit from an accuracy setup, Reavie always makes that list. He's got 99th-percentile accuracy but 4th-percentile distance. The irons? they're good: 89th percentile. The putting? It's been bad (23rd) but should be better (40th) based on his splits from within 15 feet. Reavie was T18 here last year.

Adam Schenk ($9,300 | +5500) - Schenk has some good form at TPC Deere Run, including a pair of top-six results in each of the past two years. Schenk has been fairly quiet in the results column since a 9th at the Wells Fargo but did finish top-30 at the Memorial and the U.S. Open. The putter is cold (37th percentile), as he has the worst lag putting in the field over the past 50 rounds. From inside 15 feet? He's got 85th-percentile putting splits, and he's good on bentgrass. Let's ride.

Others to Consider:
Martin Laird ($9,700 | +5000) - Best tee-to-green player in the field and accurate; a bet on putting being easy this week.
Lanto Griffin ($9,400 | +5500) - Hyper recent form is bad but underlying data is good, including 75th-percentile adjusted tee-to-green play.
David Lipsky ($9,100 | +6500) - One of the best irons in the field and accurate, too; putter is a question mark.

Low-Salaried Picks

Mark Hubbard ($9,000 | +6500) - Hubbard has the best long-term, recency-adjusted form in my model, and he gets a breather off the tee this week (27th percentile) and can let the accuracy (56th percentile) overcome a lack of distance (18th). That'll let him use those great irons (95th) to try to build on his T41 from last year. Hubbard has been making cuts despite poor putting, so it's a buy-low opportunity for us.

Sam Ryder ($8,100 | +12000) - Ryder's results at TPC Deere Run read T2, T18, T58 since 2018 at this event, and he enters with positive strokes gained: approach in five straight measured events (four of which have been mised cuts), plenty of time for us to buy into the sample. He exploded with 5.7 strokes gained from approach at the Travelers last week, as well.

Others to Consider:
Ryan Armour ($8,800 | +8000) - Most accurate driver in the field with plus irons and wedges.
Nick Taylor ($8,600 | +8000) - Three consecutive top-35s at TPC Deere Run; top-10 iron player below $9,000.
Austin Smotherman ($8,300 | +10000) - Sticking with an elite ball-striker this week.