GOLF

RBC Canadian Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

It's been a few years since we last saw the RBC Canadian Open in action, as it was last hosted in June of 2019.

That year, Rory McIlroy ran away with it with a seven-shot lead. This year, the longtime defending champ joins only a small handful of big names at the top of the field, so how does that affect strategy for this week?

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

St. George’s Golf and Country Club Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 70
Distance: 7,014 (short: ~200 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Acres/Yard: 3.4 (narrow-ish: PGA average is 4.1)
Average Green Size: 4,000 square feet (tiny: 67% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12
Past 5 Winning Scores: -14 (2010 Canadian Open)
Past 5 Cut Lines: -1 (2010 Canadian Open)
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Birdie or Better Rate

While the Canadian Open is a longstanding event in the golf world, we have not seen St. George's Golf and Country Club host an event since 2010. Before that, it was back in 1968. So, we're dealing with one event's worth of ShotLink data and need to take everything with a grain of salt, given a 2014 renovation.

The winner that year, Carl Pettersson, ranked third in strokes gained: putting and 14th in strokes gained: tee to green despite ranking 20th or worse among the cut-makers in all three individual tee-to-green stats.

The underlying data shows no real emphasis on the driver and more of an irons-and-putting setup overall.

That said, it's got some false fronts and plenty of bunkers, so strokes gained: around the green also makes the list.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

I won't be factoring in course history, given that we have to dig back 12 years to do so.

Win Simulations

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Justin
Thomas
$12,00012.2%57.7%90.9%+900
Cameron
Smith
$11,60011.9%56.2%89.6%+1500
Scottie
Scheffler
$12,10010.6%50.8%87.6%+850
Rory
McIlroy
$11,90010.4%50.1%86.8%+950
Sam
Burns
$11,7008.5%43.6%84.3%+1300
Shane
Lowry
$11,4004.8%39.9%86.1%+1800
Matt
Fitzpatrick
$11,3003.6%33.3%83.0%+1800
Tyrrell
Hatton
$10,9003.4%28.9%76.5%+2700
Corey
Conners
$11,2002.9%29.4%80.9%+2000
Harold
Varner III
$10,4002.4%24.0%75.3%+3300
Sebastian
Munoz
$10,5001.6%17.4%67.5%+3400
Tony
Finau
$11,0001.5%21.3%75.4%+2400
Justin
Rose
$10,3001.4%16.9%67.3%+5000
Keith
Mitchell
$9,9001.2%17.3%71.7%+4200
Jhonattan
Vegas
$9,9001.1%18.1%72.9%+5000
Mackenzie
Hughes
$9,8001.1%15.1%66.9%+5000
Adam
Hadwin
$10,1001.1%15.1%67.2%+3300
Chris
Kirk
$9,8000.9%16.7%72.1%+5000
Pat
Perez
$9,6000.9%14.3%70.0%+6500
Sahith
Theegala
$10,0000.8%11.0%57.3%+4200
David
Lipsky
$9,4000.8%10.5%56.5%+8000
Adam
Schenk
$8,7000.7%8.0%51.3%+12000
Patrick
Reed
$10,8000.6%10.5%60.6%+3300
Rasmus
Hojgaard
$9,7000.6%8.4%56.2%+6500
Alex
Smalley
$8,4000.5%9.6%62.2%+16000
Danny
Lee
$7,9000.5%8.3%50.1%+38000
Sam
Ryder
$7,9000.5%7.1%52.3%+32000
Adam
Svensson
$8,4000.5%7.2%52.8%+14000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets

This is a shorter list than usual of golfers with at least a 0.5% chance to win this week, per my model. The reason for it is that the model is loving the top of the field, and the top five alone -- Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Sam Burns -- comprise a 53.6% win rate. That's probably steeper than you'll see elsewhere, but I don't manually adjust things much at all (if ever).

That said, it's a week where I'm drawn toward betting some of the favorites -- specifically Smith and Thomas.

Just outside that cutoff are Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton, both good fits for how I'm viewing the course.

Top-10s and 20s that are going to be interesting include Harold Varner, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Cheng-Tsung Pan, and David Lipsky.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the RBC Canadian Open

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Cameron Smith (FanDuel Salary: $11,600 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1500) - If we're going to downplay strokes gained: off the tee, then we have to bump up Smith. Smith ranks in the 55th percentile in this field in adjusted strokes gained: off the tee but is best in approach and 95th percentile (or better) in both short game stats. Smith also is an 81st-percentile scrambler, which could come into play with false fronts and undulation this week.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,900 | +2700) - Hatton, like Smith, is a great golfer whose off-the-tee numbers aren't what ultimately separates him. If looking at strokes gained: approach through putting, Hatton is in the 99th percentile among this field and trails only Smith in that category. Hatton has three top-30 finishes in his past four starts and has elite putting splits to top it off. He sets up well this week.

Others to Consider:
Justin Thomas ($12,000 | +900) - Third in fairway through green stats while also a threat to gain off the tee; elite bunker player and scrambler.
Shane Lowry ($11,400 | +1800) - Fourth fairway through green; elite scrambler and bunker player.
Harold Varner ($10,400 | +3300) - Has some strong finishes lately and benefits from a de-emphasis on driver this week.

Mid-Range Picks

Chris Kirk ($9,800 | +5000) - Nobody with a salary below $10,000 has had a spike week in tee-to-green play over the past year more often than Kirk (42.9% of his events). The issue holding him back is a low-upside flat stick (4.8% spike week rate). Kirk, though, possesses 97th-percentile wedge play and has great sand save splits, and you'd rather see upside in the tee-to-green play and hope for a solid putting week rather than the other way around.

Cheng-Tsung Pan ($9,600 | +6000) - Pan has a strong tee-to-green game (88th percentile) and is a near-baseline putter. That's a pretty strong start for a mid-range profile in a field like this one. Pan also hits a lot of fairways (80th percentile), as well, and that might be a valuable addition to the skillset for St. George's this week.

Others to Consider:
Keith Mitchell ($9,900 | +4200) - Second-best golfer in this tier behind Kirk.
Mackenzie Hughes ($9,800 | +5000) - Canada native but more importantly a great golfer outside the tee box.
David Lipsky ($9,400 | +8000) - Has 85th-percentile irons; 12 of 16 made cuts in 2022.

Low-Salaried Picks

Matthias Schwab ($9,000 | +11000) - Schwab has one main weakness in his game (can you guess what it is? It's strokes gained: off the tee). His irons are about field average (51st percentile), and he combines that with a 95th-percentile adjusted short game. That's the path I'm taking this week, and in doing so, Schwab stands out among a really, really weak value range this week.

Mark Hubbard ($8,700 | +12000) - There are 82nd-percentile irons in Hubbard's bag, and he has 82nd-percentile-or-better splits in scrambling and sand saves, as well. Hubbard has bounced around between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour recently, and this field's relative weakness helps buy into some solid recent finishes.

Others to Consider:
Rory Sabbatini ($8,800 | +11000) - Has made six straight cuts with decent strokes gained upside in his profile.
Adam Long ($8,600 | +12000) - The best long-term golfer in my model over the past year with a salary below $9,000.
Wesley Bryan ($8,100 | +21000) - A sheer course-fit play; dreadful off the tee but quite good elsewhere.