PGA Betting Guide for The Masters
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for The Masters based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
One of the biggest weeks of the golf season is upon us, and the most important name in golf will once again be in attendance. Tiger Woods is on-site and ready to play, but even at +4800 on FanDuel, we have a tough time pulling the trigger on what would surely be one of the unlikeliest major wins of all time. We won't begrudge anyone the chance to wager on history, but value bettors need to look beyond the sentimental favorite.
Woods is, of course, a good example of what we actually do want to bet this week. Golfers with good course form (is there any better than Tiger's?) and all-around games are what we have to target. Driving, approach play, and creativity on and around the greens are all essential elements to success. That means we must focus our targets down to some of the very best golfers in the world.
For more info on Augusta National Golf Club along with this week's key stats and win simulations, check out Brandon Gdula's helper.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+1200) - Everything that we've seen from Rahm over the past couple of years tells us he is primed to go on a major championship run. His game has no weaknesses, and he thrives in the most difficult of conditions. It's no surprise he's finished inside the top-10 spots at The Masters in each of the last four renewals, and a 27th in his debut wraps up his entire Augusta history. Power off the tee and touch around the greens is essential, and Rahm checks both boxes.
As Scottie Scheffler (+1500) has overtaken him as the world's No. 1 golfer, it's easy to underrate how good Rahm has been over the past year. A positive COVID-19 test cost him not only The Memorial but very likely the FedEx Cup last year, and for our money, he's still the PGA Tour's alpha dog.
Jordan Spieth (+1900) - Spieth's magic at Augusta National simply cannot be ignored, and a third-place finish last year marked his fifth top-three finish in eight tries at The Masters. His only finish worse than 21st came in the outlier November edition. His form might not be exactly where you want it, but he showed some encouraging ballstriking signs at the Valero Texas Open.
According to statistics accumulated by Fantasy National Golf Club, he gained 2.4 strokes off the tee and 6.2 strokes on approach last week. That effort was undone by a putrid -7.2 strokes putting -- the worst performance on the greens in Spieth's career by three whole strokes. If the irons are clicking and the putting regresses, Jordan will be donning a second green jacket come Sunday.
Viktor Hovland (+1900) - Hovland impressed as low amateur here in 2019 and improved upon that T32 finish last year to T21 after failing to meet the 2020 qualifications based solely on his timing as a professional. Such a thing seems silly now, and a win would secure Hovland the No. 1 world ranking. He is missing only that marquee finish at a major championship to cement his status among the world's elite, and it would be fitting if his arrival comes in full force with a victory this week. His around-the-green game is a concern, but he's fared well enough in his first two trips and brings substantial knowledge to the proceedings for the first time.
Value Spots
Louis Oosthuizen (+4800) - His major championship record is simply too good to pass up, and Louis has the right demeanor to be paired up with Tiger for the first two rounds. In addition to his Open Championship victory, he has eight top-three finishes at majors, including a runner-up at Augusta in 2012 and everywhere except Augusta in 2021.
He seems destined to go down as one of the great near-misses in PGA Tour history as a golfer who made the most of his abilities and contended frequently enough that the lone major championship seems disappointing. Sergio Garcia (+7500) faced a similar fate a few years ago -- albeit with a far bigger monkey on his back -- before his triumph at Augusta, and Oosthuizen can rewrite the story of his career as well with a second major.
Long Shots
Marc Leishman (+8000) - Leishman brings a solid Masters record; his fifth-place finish last year was the third time he landed inside the top-10 spots. He's played well this season with 6 top-20 finishes in 10 events, including at the California Augusta corollaries Torrey Pines and Riviera. There are few options at the back of the board that actually have a chance at winning, and at 80/1, Leishman represents one of the best values. Almost all of the top players are clustered at 25/1 or shorter, and the midrange golfers are largely overvalued.
Gary Woodland (+8500) - We see you, Gary. With three top-10s in your last five events, Woodland gained in all facets -- off the tee, on approach, around the greens, and putting -- in both the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, finishing in fifth place in both events. Bay Hill in particular is a good comp for Augusta, and an 85/1 shot with that recent form is worth a sprinkle. He fits the profile as a golfer with a booming drive and a putter that can get red hot.
