PGA Betting Guide for the TOUR Championship

Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.

Below, we will cover the best bets for the TOUR Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.

As the jam-packed 2020-21 PGA Tour season comes to a close, we return to a familiar site at the Donald Ross-designed East Lake Golf Club. After a terrific finish to the penultimate event at Caves Valley, the cream of this season's crop duke it out for that $15 million first prize. Hey let's face it, all these guys are already winners.

Love it or hate it, the starting strokes return this year and last week's champ and new points leader Patrick Cantlay (+380) starts at 10-under par, with the rest of the field starting between even par and 8-under. With just 29 players in the field and shorter odds than a typical event, our card will be much more focused this week as we go all-in on the golfers with the best chance to claim this season's ultimate prize.

For more info on East Lake Golf Club along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.

At the Top

Jon Rahm (+380) - Rahm joins Cantlay at the top of the market despite a four-shot lead for the latter right out of the gate. Rahm is the No. 1 player in the world, which made his collapse at the NORTHERN TRUST all the more shocking.

That he was eager to congratulate the man who chased him down and figured into the top 10 at Caves Valley, pretty much from the moment he teed off gives us some confidence that he is not at some nadir but rather still getting better and growing. The Tour's current alpha absolutely must figure into the staking plan this week among the four golfers priced at +650 or shorter.

Value Spots

Xander Schauffele (+2600) - Schauffele has arguably played East Lake better than anyone since he arrived on Tour, with finishes of first, seventh, second, and second. He was the low 72-hole scorer last year but didn't win because of the starting stroke deficit, and he'll have to overcome an eight-shot hole over Cantlay at the start of this one.

He's at his best in short, strong fields and his all around game fits a Ross design that cannot be overpowered. Schauffele is still able to score even in tough conditions, and he clearly likes this track.

Abraham Ancer (+3400) - Ancer may not fit the bill of super elites that have claimed the FedEx Cup in recent years, but he is someone we know we can count on to charge back from a deficit. He nearly picked Rory McIlroy's pocket at Quail Hollow and fired Sunday 65's at TPC River Highlands and Kiawah Island to figure into the endgame.

He's starting six back of Cantlay and has a lot of giants to slay along the way, but on the heels of his first career win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude a few weeks back he knows his best is good enough to topple the game's best.

Long Shots

Brooks Koepka (+5000) - Of all the accolades on Koepka's resume, the FedEx Cup is notably absent. He's a long shot to buck that trend this year, but stills something draws us to Brooks this week.

We know Koepka relishes taking down the top talent, and in the first (somewhat) healthy year he was mostly an afterthought when discussing the world's elite players it would be fitting for Koepka to shock us all. He was third here in 2019 and sixth in 2017, and the Florida native prefers these bermudagrass greens if he has his pick.