Gdula's Golf Simulations and Betting Picks: Olympic Women's Golf Competition
Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Unfortunately, data for the LPGA Tour isn't nearly as robust as it is on other professional golf tours, but I'm working more and more on solving that issue.
That includes assigning each golfer a strokes gained tally that is weighted for both recency and field strength and also accounting for performance based on course length and green type.
This, then, means we can identify an adjusted strokes gained average for each golfer on the LPGA Tour.
Golfers without a significant sample will have their data regressed to a world-average mark to avoid any extreme outliers.
I then simulate out the event a few thousand times to see who is most likely to win and then compare those simulation odds to the odds at Golf odds.
Here are the most likely winners for the Olympic Women's Golf Competition, according to the model.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nelly Korda | 11.3% | +700 |
| Inbee Park | 7.9% | +1000 |
| Jin Young Ko | 6.6% | +800 |
| Lydia Ko | 6.0% | +1600 |
| Hyo Joo Kim | 6.0% | +1200 |
| Sei Young Kim | 4.8% | +1200 |
| Yuka Saso | 4.6% | +2700 |
| Brooke M. Henderson | 4.6% | +2200 |
| Patty Tavatanakit | 4.0% | +1800 |
| Lexi Thompson | 3.9% | +2000 |
| Ariya Jutanugarn | 3.7% | +1200 |
| Danielle Kang | 3.5% | +1400 |
| Minjee Lee | 3.3% | +1800 |
| Shanshan Feng | 3.2% | +2000 |
| Jessica Korda | 3.0% | +2900 |
| Xiyu Lin | 2.9% | +3300 |
| Leona Maguire | 2.5% | +2000 |
| Hannah Green | 2.3% | +2200 |
| Nasa Hataoka | 1.6% | +2000 |
| Celine Boutier | 1.5% | +4100 |
| Mel Reid | 1.3% | +8000 |
| Emily Kristine Pedersen | 1.0% | +10000 |
| Matilda Castren | 1.0% | +3300 |
| Nanna Koerstz Madsen | 0.9% | +10000 |
| Gaby Lopez | 0.8% | +6500 |
| Madelene Sagstrom | 0.8% | +10000 |
| Sophia Popov | 0.8% | +10000 |
| Anna Nordqvist | 0.7% | +6000 |
| Manon De Roey | 0.5% | +75000 |
| Jodi Ewart Shadoff | 0.5% | +10000 |
| Wei-Ling Hsu | 0.5% | +8000 |
| Giulia Molinaro | 0.5% | +15000 |
| Carlota Ciganda | 0.4% | +6500 |
| Caroline Masson | 0.4% | +10000 |
| Perrine Delacour | 0.4% | +12000 |
| Mone Inami | 0.3% | +5000 |
| Azahara Munoz | 0.3% | +12000 |
| Albane Valenzuela | 0.2% | +21000 |
| Stephanie Meadow | 0.2% | +50000 |
| Alena Sharp | 0.2% | +21000 |
| Min Lee | 0.1% | +12000 |
| Bianca Pagdanganan | 0.1% | +32000 |
| Maria Fassi | 0.1% | +42000 |
| Tiffany Chan | 0.1% | +75000 |
| Klara Spilkova | 0.1% | +75000 |
| Pia Babnik | 0.1% | +21000 |
| Sanna Nuutinen | 0.1% | +21000 |
| Anne van Dam | 0.1% | +21000 |
| Diksha Dagar | 0.0% | +42000 |
| Aditi Ashok | 0.0% | +42000 |
| Mariajo Uribe | 0.0% | +50000 |
| Kelly Tan | 0.0% | +50000 |
| Christine Wolf | 0.0% | +50000 |
| Kim Metraux | 0.0% | +75000 |
| Lucrezia Colombotto Rosso | 0.0% | +100000 |
| Maha Haddioui | 0.0% | +100000 |
| Magdalena Simmermacher | 0.0% | +100000 |
| Tonje Daffinrud | 0.0% | +100000 |
| Maria Torres | 0.0% | +100000 |
| Daniela Darquea | 0.0% | +100000 |
The discussion has to begin with Nelly Korda (+700 on FanDuel Sportsbook).
Korda actually rates out a somewhat fair value even at the +700 number. Why? Well, the data is weighted for recency, and Korda's past three starts have been a win (Meijer LPGA Classic), win (KPMG Women's PGA Championship), and 17th (Dow Great Lakes Bay Invitational). She also is the best golfer in the world over the past year on courses that classify as long, and Kasumigaseki is listed as a 6,669-yard course for the women.
The model is finding some value on Lydia Ko (+1600). While Ko's driving distance rates out as middling, she ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained average on long courses over the past year and also has good bentgrass splits.
Ko was 52nd at the Women's PGA but 7th at the HSBC Women's World Championship, 2nd at the ANA Inspiration, 26th at the Kia Classic, and 2nd at the Gainbridge LPGA since February, all of which classify as lengthy tracks. She finished runner-up at the 2016 Olympics, as well.
Yuka Saso (+2700) looks really promising here with the caveat is that her sample is still rather small (23 rounds). The 20-year-old LPGA rookie has been on fire, however.
Since a 50th at the ANA Inspiration, she has finished 6th (LOTTE Championship), 1st (winning the U.S. Women's Open), 21st (at the KPMG Women's PGA), 5th (Marathon LPGA Classic), and 5th (Dow Great Lakes Bay Invitational).
Brooke Henderson (+2200) ranks sixth in driving distance gained on the LPGA Tour this season and is quite consistent on lengthy tracks with five straight top-25 finishes on such courses in 2021.
The Canadian also has shown good bentgrass splits, including three top-25s on courses with bentgrass greens since mid May in three tries. Henderson put forth a T7 at the 2016 Olympic games.
