Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: AT&T Byron Nelson
By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.
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Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.
|Key Stats for the AT&T Byron Nelson
at TPC Craig Ranch
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green|
|Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass|
|Birdie or Better Rate|
TPC Craig Ranch has hosted the Korn Ferry Tour championship in 2008 and 2012 (then the Nationwide and Web.Com Championships, respectively), so we have two years of professional golf at the course (though none super recently and none with Shotlink data).
I did my best with the information to dig into the 7,438-yard par 72. (Just a note here: it played as a par 71 back then and may shift again to a par 71 on the PGA Tour.)
Going back to those 2008 and 2012 seasons, we saw winning scores of 17- and 16-under. We’ve seen a higher-than-average birdie-or-better rate at TPC Craig Ranch in each of the two seasons. Despite the lower scores there, full-season scrambling rate correlated well with stroke differential, which is worth noting.
Greens in regulation rank was the lowest across some main stats -- distance, accuracy, good drive rate, greens in regulation, scrambling, putts per green in regulation -- so we should be good focusing on iron play via strokes gained: approach.
And of the driving stats, distance seems most important and correlated better with success in those tournaments than either accuracy or good drive rate.
In looking at the course flyover, there are some split fairways, which could lead to forced layups, but the distances also sort of imply that some of the longer hitters could carry some of them, and distance for sure should be seen as an advantage.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson
All stats cited below come from FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency adjustments. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 100 rounds when possible, unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Jon Rahm (FanDuel Salary: $12,200 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +850) - Rahm is my win model's preferred pick of the week and comes in $100 lower in salary than Bryson DeChambeau ($12,300). Both fit the course well from a distance and putting angle. DeChambeau has the home-game narrative because of his college career at Southern Methodist. But Rahm is the better iron player (97th percentile) than DeChambeau (77th), enough to give Rahm a slight edge from a process standpoint.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,200 | +2000) - I like Daniel Berger ($11,600) more, but hey, I talked about Rahm, and we have to save some salary when we can among the studs. Scheffler played collegiately at the University of Texas and is from Dallas. More importantly, he ranks in the 95th percentile in adjusted strokes gained: tee to green and 86th percentile in distance gained. He's an elite birdie-maker, and this week should go pretty low, particularly if the wind stays light.
Others to Consider:
Daniel Berger ($11,600 | +1400) - In the same tier as Rahm and DeChambeau from a long-term form standpoint and could go overlooked.
Si Woo Kim ($10,700 | +3400) - Is 95th percentile tee to green and an elite ball-striker plus a good scrambler and bentgrass putter.
Jason Day ($10,300 | +5500) - Long enough (78th percentile) and elite on bentgrass (98th percentile). Could thrive at a bunker-heavy course.
Talor Gooch ($9,900 | +7000) - Gooch has good all-around stats: 75th percentile off the tee, 86th percentile in approach, 56th percentile around the green, and 88th percentile in putting. He's above average in distance gained (63rd) and in bentgrass putting (74th), too. Gooch is from Oklahoma, so it's not Texas, but you know, it's at least something. He has a pair fourth-place finishes at the Houston Open, so I think the narrative fits.
Doug Ghim ($9,600 | +9000) - Ghim's ball-striking stats are strong right now, and he has gained strokes from approach play in 10 straight events and from off-the-tee in 7 of those 10. The short game can get him into issues, and he has lost an average of 4.0 strokes putting over his past 5 starts but is back on bentgrass, a positive surface for him. He played college golf at the University of Texas.
Others to Consider:
Carlos Ortiz ($9,900 | +7000) - Went to North Texas; irons are ice cold, but everything else is strong: 78th percentile off the tee, 94th around the green, 88th putting.
Thomas Pieters ($9,500 | +6500) - Long (82nd percentile) and elite ball-striker overall but not a good bentgrass putter (31st percentile).
Sebastian Munoz ($9,400 | +12000) - Like Ortiz, went to North Texas; 9th at Valero Texas Open in early April; 85th percentile tee to green.
Wyndham Clark ($8,600 | +15000) - Clark fits the course from a few angles: he's long off the tee, ranking in the 95th percentile in distance gained over the past 100 rounds. He's also good on bentgrass, gaining an average of 0.49 strokes per round over 51 rounds, which puts him in the 94th percentile in the field. The irons are terrible (seventh percentile), but nobody down here is perfect.
Tom Lewis ($8,200 | +12000) - Lewis ranks in the 78th percentile in adjusted strokes gained: tee to green over the past year and does it by gaining a lot of strokes off the tee (87th), which he does by being long (81st). He's also got good sand splits, which could come in handy this week.
Others to Consider:
James Hahn ($8,600 | +15000) - Ranks third in adjusted strokes gained over the past year, according to my data, but not long off the tee (34th percentile).
Pat Perez ($8,500 | +15000) - Putting is strong on bentgrass (89th percentile) and a good short-gamer. Just not long (25th percentile).
Patton Kizzire ($8,500 | +15000) - The best long-term player over the past year, per my data, at $9,000 or lower; 58th-percentile distance and bentgrass putting.