Gdula's Golf Simulations: The Masters
Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Masters, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% |
Simulated Top-10% |
Simulated Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 8.0% | 44.7% | 92.1% | +950 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 6.7% | 40.5% | 91.1% | +950 |
| Justin Thomas | 6.1% | 38.6% | 90.5% | +1100 |
| Jon Rahm | 6.1% | 39.2% | 90.6% | +1200 |
| Xander Schauffele | 5.4% | 38.1% | 90.2% | +2500 |
| Jordan Spieth | 3.7% | 25.1% | 82.2% | +1100 |
| Tony Finau | 3.3% | 28.3% | 86.2% | +3500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3.3% | 27.8% | 86.2% | +2000 |
| Daniel Berger | 3.2% | 29.0% | 86.2% | +3900 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2.8% | 24.9% | 84.4% | +3500 |
| Patrick Reed | 2.5% | 24.2% | 84.2% | +3200 |
| Webb Simpson | 2.4% | 24.0% | 83.7% | +4300 |
| Rory McIlroy | 2.4% | 21.2% | 82.2% | +1900 |
| Brooks Koepka | 2.3% | 21.7% | 82.3% | +2600 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2.2% | 21.3% | 81.9% | +4700 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.9% | 19.3% | 80.4% | +2900 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.8% | 21.1% | 82.4% | +6000 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.7% | 19.4% | 80.8% | +4600 |
| Paul Casey | 1.6% | 17.5% | 79.2% | +3600 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1.5% | 16.9% | 78.7% | +4000 |
| Cameron Smith | 1.3% | 16.1% | 77.4% | +3900 |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.3% | 19.1% | 75.8% | +9000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.3% | 15.1% | 77.3% | +4000 |
| Jason Day | 1.3% | 15.4% | 77.3% | +6000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 1.2% | 13.6% | 75.9% | +9000 |
| Sungjae Im | 1.0% | 11.7% | 73.0% | +3900 |
| Corey Conners | 1.0% | 14.2% | 76.0% | +9500 |
| Sergio Garcia | 1.0% | 13.5% | 75.3% | +4900 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.0% | 13.0% | 74.9% | +16000 |
| Abraham Ancer | 0.9% | 12.9% | 75.4% | +9500 |
| Brian Harman | 0.9% | 12.3% | 73.9% | +12000 |
| Jason Kokrak | 0.9% | 16.2% | 77.7% | +12000 |
| Si Woo Kim | 0.9% | 12.6% | 74.4% | +16000 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.9% | 12.4% | 74.1% | +19000 |
| Harris English | 0.9% | 12.6% | 72.6% | +12000 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.8% | 11.4% | 73.1% | +10000 |
| Adam Scott | 0.8% | 10.4% | 71.7% | +4900 |
| Lanto Griffin | 0.7% | 12.0% | 73.7% | +21000 |
| Bubba Watson | 0.7% | 9.8% | 70.6% | +8500 |
| Kevin Na | 0.7% | 9.7% | 70.5% | +19000 |
| Matthew Wolff | 0.6% | 9.7% | 70.6% | +12000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.6% | 8.3% | 67.9% | +4900 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0.6% | 10.1% | 70.1% | +16000 |
| Zach Johnson | 0.6% | 9.8% | 70.7% | +21000 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.6% | 9.4% | 69.4% | +29000 |
| Shane Lowry | 0.6% | 8.5% | 68.1% | +10000 |
| Lee Westwood | 0.5% | 5.7% | 63.1% | +3600 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0.5% | 8.4% | 68.8% | +29000 |
| Justin Rose | 0.5% | 8.3% | 68.0% | +10000 |
| Max Homa | 0.5% | 8.4% | 68.6% | +10000 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.5% | 8.7% | 67.7% | +18000 |
| Matt Wallace | 0.5% | 8.1% | 67.7% | +12000 |
| Matt Jones | 0.4% | 8.0% | 67.4% | +18000 |
| Ian Poulter | 0.4% | 6.7% | 65.0% | +16000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 0.3% | 6.8% | 65.2% | +18000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 0.3% | 6.1% | 63.9% | +18000 |
| Matt Kuchar | 0.3% | 4.9% | 60.9% | +12000 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.3% | 5.3% | 62.5% | +16000 |
The models are liking Dustin Johnson's chances to repeat. He's listed at +950 on Golf odds, same as Bryson DeChambeau. Neither are positive values, according to the model, but DJ would be the better bet among the favorites.
The next tier also rates out fine but as overvalued: Jordan Spieth (+1100), Justin Thomas (+1100), and Jon Rahm (+1200). Spieth is fresh off a win and has four career top-three finishes at Augusta (with a win), and Rahm has great form at Augusta, too. Thomas is trending up at the Masters long term.
Where the value really stands out is with Xander Schauffele, who has fallen to +2500 this week. Statistically -- from a sheer data standpoint -- he is on the same plane as Johnson, DeChambeau, Rahm, and Thomas long-term but just hasn't converted his wins. He has a runner-up at Augusta in 2019 and a 17th back in November. Blocking out the name and "closing factor," Xander is a very obvious value bet at the number.
Speaking of failing to close out potential wins, let's talk Tony Finau at +3500. He's a positive value according to the simulations and has done well at Augusta historically: 10th, 5th, 38th in three tries.
Other even or plus values include Daniel Berger (+3900), Viktor Hovland (+3500), Webb Simpson (+4300), Tyrrell Hatton (+4700), and Joaquin Niemann (+6000).
I don't want to get sucked into long shots for the Masters because of the field strength but will look to them for top-10s. Guys who have my eye include Corey Conners, Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Palmer, and Jason Kokrak currently.
I've already bet Schauffele, Finau, Berger, and Simpson to win this week. I covered a lot of my favorite alternate bets on this week's episode of Covering the Spread with Jim Sannes and Dr. Ed Feng.
