Gdula's Golf Simulations: WGC-Workday Championship
Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to adjust for course fit very easily. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the WGC-Workday Championship, according to the models.
| Golfer | Simulated Win% |
Simulated Top-10% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 10.1% | 51.7% | +600 |
| Xander Schauffele | 7.3% | 46.2% | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | 7.1% | 43.3% | +850 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 5.6% | 40.4% | +2000 |
| Daniel Berger | 4.9% | 37.5% | +3100 |
| Justin Thomas | 4.6% | 36.6% | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 4.4% | 33.9% | +1800 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 3.7% | 31.8% | +1800 |
| Tony Finau | 3.1% | 28.5% | +2000 |
| Patrick Reed | 2.9% | 27.7% | +3100 |
| Rory McIlroy | 2.9% | 26.3% | +1600 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2.7% | 24.9% | +2200 |
| Harris English | 2.7% | 27.6% | +5500 |
| Webb Simpson | 2.7% | 26.2% | +2900 |
| Collin Morikawa | 2.0% | 22.0% | +3400 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.9% | 23.0% | +5000 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1.7% | 19.5% | +4100 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.5% | 19.0% | +4500 |
| Brooks Koepka | 1.4% | 15.3% | +2700 |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.3% | 17.9% | +5500 |
| Sungjae Im | 1.3% | 15.3% | +3300 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.2% | 18.0% | +8000 |
| Abraham Ancer | 1.2% | 16.6% | +10000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.2% | 16.7% | +5000 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.1% | 17.4% | +12000 |
| Adam Scott | 1.0% | 14.5% | +5000 |
| Cameron Smith | 1.0% | 13.7% | +4500 |
| Jason Kokrak | 0.9% | 13.4% | +9000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.8% | 13.2% | +6000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0.8% | 13.8% | +15000 |
| Jason Day | 0.8% | 12.2% | +5000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.8% | 11.1% | +4100 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.8% | 13.3% | +10000 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.8% | 12.6% | +15000 |
| Lanto Griffin | 0.8% | 12.6% | +12000 |
| Sergio Garcia | 0.7% | 11.9% | +8000 |
| Kevin Na | 0.7% | 11.7% | +10000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0.7% | 11.7% | +9000 |
| Bubba Watson | 0.7% | 12.4% | +8000 |
| Matthew Wolff | 0.6% | 10.3% | +8000 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.6% | 9.6% | +9000 |
| Max Homa | 0.6% | 9.6% | +5000 |
| Justin Rose | 0.5% | 8.4% | +5500 |
| Shane Lowry | 0.5% | 8.9% | +7000 |
| Matt Kuchar | 0.5% | 8.9% | +15000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 0.5% | 8.8% | +15000 |
| Lee Westwood | 0.5% | 8.6% | +12000 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.4% | 7.2% | +12000 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 0.3% | 6.2% | +12000 |
| Sebastian J Munoz | 0.3% | 7.1% | +21000 |
| Marc Leishman | 0.3% | 4.1% | +8000 |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.2% | 5.9% | +15000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0.2% | 3.6% | +9000 |
| Victor Perez | 0.2% | 3.1% | +9000 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0.2% | 3.0% | +10000 |
| Andy Sullivan | 0.2% | 3.5% | +12000 |
| Cameron Champ | 0.2% | 4.9% | +15000 |
| Thomas Detry | 0.2% | 2.3% | +15000 |
| Laurie Canter | 0.1% | 2.3% | +15000 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.1% | 2.6% | +15000 |
| David Lipsky | 0.1% | 1.7% | +21000 |
| Aaron Rai | 0.1% | 1.8% | +27000 |
| Sami Valimaki | 0.1% | 1.8% | +21000 |
| Chan Kim | 0.1% | 2.4% | +32000 |
| Jason Scrivener | 0.1% | 1.5% | +27000 |
| Wade Ormsby | 0.0% | 0.4% | +50000 |
| Min Woo Lee | 0.0% | 0.1% | +42000 |
| Yuki Inamori | 0.0% | 0.0% | +42000 |
| Danie Van Tonder | 0.0% | 0.0% | +50000 |
| Brad Kennedy | 0.0% | 0.0% | +50000 |
| JC Ritchie | 0.0% | 0.0% | +50000 |
| Trevor Simsby | 0.0% | 0.0% | +50000 |
I didn't make any empirical course adjustments for this week because, well, how could I? The Concession hasn't ever hosted a PGA Tour event but did host the 2015 Men's and Women's NCAA championship. Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 individual event shooting -8. Other golfers who played there and are in this field include Thomas Detry (finished 3rd), Jon Rahm (22nd), Scottie Scheffler (33rd), and Xander Schauffele (45th).
With Dustin Johnson sucking up a lot of of the win equity at +600, it actually opens up value for us because the models don't think his win odds are that high (+600 is around 14.3%). Rahm is also overvalued at +850 (which means around 10.5% win odds), per the models.
That makes Schauffele, DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Daniel Berger positive values. Schauffele and Thomas are no-cut studs, as well.
Down-the-card values, per the model, include Harris English (+5500), Ryan Palmer (+8000), Abraham Ancer (+10000), and Kevin Kisner (+12000).
Just keep the long shots in check. The past winners at WGC events have been: Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson.
My bets so far include outrights on Justin Thomas, DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, and Matthew Fitzpatrick and top-10s on Harris English and Kisner.
