PGA Betting Guide for The Genesis Invitational
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Genesis Invitational based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
After one of the weakest fields of the year last week at Pebble Beach, we size up Riviera Country Club and an absolutely stacked field of 120 golfers. The talent on the PGA Tour at the current moment rivals the greatest periods of golf history. Beyond the unquestioned top dog in Dustin Johnson (+550), the top tier is absolutely loaded and many of the Tour's elite are clustered together. That leads to some eye-catching numbers on top-20 golfers and former major champions that are hard to pass up.
With DJ going off at a basically un-bettable number, we'll skip him this week and look to the next man up before focusing our card on finding undervalued golfers who still have the world-class talent needed to come through here.
For more info on Riviera Country Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Jon Rahm (+1200) - At more than double Johnson's odds but still the second-favorite we find Rahm, a grinder who thrives in tough conditions compared to the more birdie-happy Justin Thomas (+1300) and Rory McIlroy (+1300). Any of these guys can win just about anywhere, but Rahm proved he has his best stuff when the going gets tough with wins at the Memorial and the BMW Championship last season. He's always been comfortable on the West Coast with wins at the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open. Over his career, he's made 24 starts in California, Nevada, and Arizona, and he's finished 17th or better in all but two of them.
Patrick Cantlay (+1500) - Another golfer who has shined on the West Coast and is in terrific form, Cantlay warrants consideration even at a hefty price. His last three starts in California were a third place at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a second at the American Express, and a win at the ZOZO Championship at Sherwood. Cantlay is a model of consistency thanks to his ballstriking, and over the past two years, he's become even more deadly by adding a reliable short game. He now gains strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting pretty much every week, and while he doesn't have the major championship bona fides of many of the other top tier golfers, he brings more win equity than the similarly-priced Xander Schauffele (+1500) and is less volatile than Bryson DeChambeau (+1800).
Value Spots
Viktor Hovland (+3400) - Hovland is making a big push for the European Ryder Cup team, and even with two wins already on his resume he still lacks a signature victory in an elite field. That could change this week in his Riviera debut. He was runner-up at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, his fifth top-15 finish in his last seven events. While still inconsistent with his short game, Hovland has made great progress in that department and even has some spike weeks of elite putting. If he can add that element to match his ballstriking prowess, Hovland will rise above the fray and stand alone among the next generation of studs.
Joaquin Niemann (+4000) - Niemann is another elite ballstriker who's really come on of late, with back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open giving him top 25s in all but one event of the new season. He could easily have won either event and perhaps his most impressive showing over the past year was his third-place finish behind Rahm and Johnson at the BMW Championship. That was championship golf in some of the toughest conditions seen all year, and it was Niemann right there with the top players in the world.
Long Shots
Will Zalatoris (+7000) - Zalatoris is now inside the top 50 in the world even without full status on the PGA Tour, and a disappointing weekend at Pebble Beach can be forgiven off how ill-suited his skillset is to that course. He's only won once so far in his career but once he breaks through, he's sure to start piling up victories. That Pebble was just the 6th time in 26 combined Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour starts since the beginning of 2020 that he failed to finish inside the top 20 speaks to his consistency, and in a short field he's notable for a Top 20 Finish (+170).
Other golfers with winning upside that warrant just a sprinkle this week include Matthew Wolff (+8000), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+8000), and Gary Woodland (+13000).
