GOLF

Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

A few big names in the field have elite history at Pebble Beach. Can you trust them this week?

By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.

Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.

But whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.

Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.

Key Stats

Key Stats for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at
Pebble Beach Golf Links and
Spyglass Hill Golf Course
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa
Bogey Avoidance
Event History


Despite the tournament name, this isn't a pro-am setup, and we're shedding Monterey Peninsula and the 54-hole cut. It's just a 36-hole cut for the top 65 and ties, and it'll feature the classic Pebble Beach course and Spyglass Hill.

That means three rounds at Pebble for those who play until Sunday, so it should take precedence over Spyglass. Via datagolf, Pebble Beach is about as average a PGA Tour course as we get in terms of which stats matter: they almost all fit to the Tour average aside from driving accuracy being a little less important. Everything is ramped up at Spyglass, aside from the fact that accuracy drops a ton and distance is super vital.

Both green types will be poa, and putting matters a little extra here. Aside from that, scores don't get super low here due in part to the courses and wind potential, so things like bogey avoidance or performance in wind could be considered.

Event history has mattered more at this event than just about any other PGA Tour setup, so it gets more credence than usual.

For a more detailed breakdown on the course, check out our course primer from Mike Rodden.

All stats cited below come from FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the start of 2020 and is adjusted based on my field strength adjustments. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 100 rounds when possible, unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field.

Best of the Best

Daniel Berger (FanDuel Salary: $11,000 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1400) - Berger is emerging to me as the best play after Dustin Johnson withdrew. My win simulation model likes him more than the +1400 odds indicate. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in log-term adjusted strokes gained: off the tee and approach and is in the 83rd percentile when putting on poa. Berger also has two top-10 finishes at this event and should get some just-missed-the-cut popularity leverage.

Jason Day ($11,000 | +2100) - With DJ withdrawing, everything gets shuffled up. If you look back at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Day shot 71-70 to miss the cut by two, and he somehow lost 5.2 strokes putting in just two rounds. He has gained an average of 0.47 on poa over the past 100 rounds. Day also has elite form at Pebble Beach. Starting from 2015, he's finished 4th, 11th, 5th, 2nd, 4th, and 4th. The irons rank in just the 52nd percentile long-term, but we need a win in our lineups, and Day can do it.

Jordan Spieth ($11,100 | +2700) - I mostly just wanted to dig into Spieth rather than flat out recommend him, but with Johnson out of the event, there's a lot more reason to like Spieth. He went off on Saturday last week and, in total, gained 7.8 strokes from approach last week en route to his fourth-place finish. However, he lost 3.7 off the tee and has now lost strokes off the tee in 12 straight measured events. He has eight straight made cuts at this event and won in 2017. There's a lot to like about Spieth in this poor field, but he's far from a guarantee, and he's not yet back.

Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,900 | +1000) - Enters off a runner-up. Good Pebble Beach form (six made cuts, two top 12s). Elite stats.
Sam Burns ($10,500 | +4200) - Rode a hot putter to a top-25 last week but usually has the ball-striking to contend in most places.
Max Homa ($10,100 | +5000) - Irons are dialed in (10.4 gained the past two starts), and he's best when putting on poa. Top-15 two straight years here.

Mid-Range Picks

Brian Harman ($9,900 | +5000) - Harman hasn't played this event since 2014 when he missed the cut, but he is now currently sixth in the field in long-term adjusted strokes gained, per my data. Not only that, but Harman is gets a boost when putting on poa and ranks in the 97th percentile over the past 100 rounds relative to the field. Though Harman's irons have been up-and-down, he's good for the salary.

Matthew NeSmith ($9,600 | +7000) - NeSmith has more starts with at least 4.5 strokes gained from approach play (four) in his past eight than he does losing strokes from approach (just one). NeSmith is a poor poa putter, losing an average of 0.31 strokes per round on the surface, but this field falls off fast, and it's better to bet on elite irons than anything else. He also finished 11th here last year.

Others to Consider:
Cameron Tringale ($9,900 | +6500) - Long off the tee (78th percentile) and good at avoiding bogeys (99th percentile). Lengthy history here and consecutive top 20s on Tour.
Harold Varner ($9,200 | +6500) - Form has been really up-and-down but can strike hot with irons like he did in Houston (15th) and Phoenix (13th).

Low-Salaried Picks

Joel Dahmen ($8,900 | +9000) - Dahmen is one of the few under-salaried plays worth considering building around. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in strokes gained: off the tee and in the 79th percentile in strokes gained: approach. Dahmen isn't a good poa putter (35th percentile), but it's actually his best surface! Dahmen has made all three cuts here and was 14th a year ago.

Ryan Moore ($8,500 | +9000) - Moore has now missed four straight cuts after a 12th at the 3M Open way back in July. That sounds bad, and it is bad, but he has gained strokes tee to green in three of the four missed cuts and somehow lost 7.6 strokes putting last week in two rounds. Moore ranks in the 90th percentile or better in adjusted strokes gained off the tee and approach, so he's got the right profile to get it done.

Others to Consider:
Rory Sabbatini ($8,900 | +10000) -
Enters with a 10th and 12th bookended by missed cuts; lost 4.2 strokes around the green last week; has played Pebble a ton.
Bo Hoag ($8,600 | +12000) - Three straight made cuts mostly with good tee-to-green numbers. Good early returns on poa greens to go with good adjusted putting overall.
Patrick Rodgers ($8,400 | +15000) - Distance (94th percentile) and poa putting (80th) check out but 26th-percentile irons.