Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: Mayakoba Golf Classic
By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.
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Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.
|Key Stats for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
at El Camaleon GC
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Strokes Gained: Off the Tee|
|Strokes Gained: Putting|
|Birdie or Better Rate|
There is no strokes gained data from El Camaleon, so we have to make some assumptions about performance, here, but we know a few things, at least.
Driving accuracy is more important than usual at this course, via datagolf. That, naturally, means there's a de-emphasis on driving distance. It's a short course overall (hovering around 7,000 yards as a par 71), and the past four winners were all at least 19 under par. We'll need scorers, and scoring usually comes from good drives, hot irons, and a good putter, which is why the key stats this week are what they are.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour, and putting surface splits include the past 100 rounds when possible, unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Justin Thomas (FanDuel Salary: $12,600 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +600) - He's the class of the field and is about 12.2% likely to win this thing, based on my simulations, which is an absurdly high number. Thomas leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green average, birdie or better rate gained, and par 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds. He's second in strokes gained: approach and fourth in scrambling. The only thing he's mediocre at is putting (90th over the past 100 rounds). He's a scary fade, even at the heavy salary.
Daniel Berger ($11,400 | +1600) - Berger is a much better putter than Thomas (16th over the past 100 rounds) and is on a heater tee-to-green. He ranks 4th in strokes gained: tee to green (14th off the tee and 5th in approach) and is 2nd in birdie or better rate gained as well as 28th in fairways gained. He's one of the few studs who really hits a lot of fairways, so El Camaleon should fit him well.
Others to Consider:
Viktor Hovland ($11,300 | + 1800) - Course should fit him well -- 42nd in fairways gained, 9th in birdie or better rate -- and is 5th off the tee and 19th in approach.
Russell Henley ($10,900 | +2700) - Field leader in strokes gained: approach and 35th off the tee; putter is not great (97th over the past 100).
Sebastian Munoz ($10,100 | +4100) - Jack of all stats but master of none; Munoz is 23rd in birdie or better rate and 22nd tee-to-green.
Chez Reavie ($9,600 | +9000) - Reavie always gets a boost on courses when he needs to hit fairways (1st in fairways gained) and stick his irons (4th in approach), but there's a legitimate concern when it comes to the putting (120th over the past 100 rounds). That's why he ranks 7th in opportunities gained but 103rd in birdie or better rate. He's finished 26th or better here four straight years.
Kevin Streelman ($9,100 | +7000) - Streelman ranks 17th in strokes gained: tee to green (32nd off the tee and 21st in approach) and is 20th in birdie or better rate gained. He also ranks 20th in fairways gained, so he should be a plus off the tee this week. He's not a great putter (73rd over the past 100 rounds) but is worst on bentgrass, so he gets relief there. He has missed the cut at El Camaleon two years in a row but was 20th, 4th, and 34th before that.
Others to Consider:
Joel Dahmen ($9,900 | +7000) - Ranks just 51st in approach but is usually a great ball-striker; has good course form (6th, 41st, 23rd).
Harold Varner ($9,700 | +7000) - Is 3rd tee to green and 12th in birdie or better rate but 102nd putting. Two top-10s here in his past four tries.
Adam Long ($9,500 | +7000) - Hovering around 50th in both ball-striking stats but consecutive top-30s with great tee-to-green data. Runner-up here last year.
Brian Harman ($7,000 | +6000) - Harman at this salary breaks the slate open, though with golf, there's a chance he misses the cut (around a 30% chance, per my simulations). That means roughly a 30% chance that he busts. But his win odds make him an outlier. He's also 30th in strokes gained: tee to green and 31st in birdie or better rate gained over the past 50 rounds. He has made four straight cuts here but hasn't finished better than 40th.
Tom Hoge ($8,000 | +15000) - Hoge ranks 33rd in approach and 5th in opportunities gained (which he converts enough to rank 37th in birdie or better rate gained). That's good enough to put him in the mix for someone who can go low at a course such as this. He has, though, missed two straight cuts here (and two straight cuts overall), but the peripheral data is quite good for the salary.
Others to Consider:
Adam Hadwin ($8,800 | +12000) - Good long-term play who benefits when he doesn't need distance; 10th here in each of his past two starts.
Tyler Duncan ($8,400 | +15000) - Great ball-striker (27th off the tee and 20th in approach) and 7th in fairways gained; El Camaleon fits him well (three straight made cuts).
Charley Hoffman ($8,900 | +10000) - Is 36th off the tee and 30th in approach plus 17th in birdie rate gained. Weirdly five straight missed cuts here after a 2015 win.