PGA Betting Guide for the RSM Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the RSM Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
With The Masters and U.S. Open behind us, the Swing Season may finally start to feel more like its crazy self, and while we still have some big-enough names at the top of the board this week, it feels more like we'll get an outlier result as most of them are reeling from the first-ever fall Masters.
We'll look to one name getting back into form after last week and back on his preferred putting surface, then open things up for golfers who have shown flashes of form at similar courses. All but one of our picks will be starting on the Plantation Course, by far the easier of the two tracks this week. Getting out to a strong start and then getting three consecutive rounds at the same course instead of bouncing back and forth will be the preferred path this week.
For more info on the Seaside and Plantation courses at Sea Island Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Sungjae Im (+2000) - While Webb Simpson (+900) is the worthy favorite this week and in good form overall, we'll take the extra points on Sungjae off a runner-up finish at Augusta. We liken the friendly scoring and bermuda greens here to Sedgefield CC, and Im has two top-10 finishes in his two tries there. He had strung together a few solid if unspectacular finishes leading up to The Masters, and we can expect him to build off the strong showing last week. Im is famous for how many events he plays each year, and with the break coming up, he'll be keen to add to his record while the game is together.
Russell Henley (+2000) - Henley is striking it better than he has at any point in his career, and given his upside with the putter on bermuda, we can't ignore him this week. At his best, he was able to contend even at Augusta, and no doubt he was a close observer last week, itching to get back out there. The price is steep, but for the best iron player of the young season, we'll pay the premium price at a course that should mitigate his lack of length off the tee. When in form, he booked three straight top-10s here from 2014-2016.
Value Spots
Dylan Frittelli (+5000) - Like Im, we'll ride the strong finish at Augusta at a nice number this week. Frittelli performed well at our comp courses in the summer, finishing T8 at the RBC Heritage and T20 at the Wyndham Championship, and with the cancellation this year, he's still the reigning champion at the John Deere Classic. At his best, he crushes from tee to green, and while we don't have strokes gained data for The Masters, we do know he hit 72.22% of his greens in regulation, tied with eight others for 11th in the field. After losing strokes on approach in three straight events, that type of a bounceback and a T5 finish portend well this week.
Cheng-Tsung Pan (+5500) - Another streaky golfer coming off a good showing at The Masters, Pan is shorter than we'd like this week but still very much in play. He has solid finishes at the RSM Classic to his name, finishing T13 in fall 2017 and T6 in 2016. He has a runner up at the correlated Wyndham Championship and a win at the short, coastal RBC Heritage. The T7 at Augusta was his first top-10 since Colonial in 2019, just a few weeks after his win at Harbour Town. In form and at a course that suits him much better than Augusta, Pan is also available for a nice payout on a Top 20 Finish (+340).
Long Shots
J.T. Poston (+6000) - Another good bermuda putter who can get hot with his irons, Poston was out of his depth en route to a missed cut at The Masters but had been playing well recently, with finishes of T20 at the Houston Open, T27 at the Shriners, and T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He found something here last year, finishing T14 after three straight missed cuts at the RSM. He won at Sedgefield in 2019 and has a good Heritage record as well, finishing T8 this year and T6 in 2019.
Brandt Snedeker (+8000) - Sneds will always be on our radar if we are comparing to the Wyndham, where he has a win and two more top-fives, and oh-by-the-way, he shot a 59 at Sedgefield on his way to a three-shot victory in 2018 over Simpson and Pan. His best finish at Sea Island is just 29th, but he hasn't played here since that finish in 2017. He comes off at a solid number for First Round Leader - Plantation Course (+4300), given he's only facing half the field and is better than half his overall number as of Wednesday morning.
