PGA Betting Guide for the BMW Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the BMW Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
With just one no-cut event remaining to qualify for the TOUR Championship, we can eye some golfers on the fringe that will be playing with desperation for one more week of action or a final shot at the huge FedEx Cup prize money. With such a strong field, we should be targeting the best of the best, with an eye toward value in the betting market.
For more info on Olympia Fields CC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Rory McIlroy (+1800) - The defending FedEx Cup Champion spoke about the effect no spectators has had on his recent listless play, but sitting at 12th in the FedEx Cup Standings with another huge payday still within striking distance should result in McIlroy pulling out all the stops this week. As we saw with Dustin Johnson (+750) last week, sometimes the best play is just to grab the value. Getting McIlroy at double the odds he went off at earlier in the year is too good to pass up in a short field.
Collin Morikawa (+2200) - Or maybe this guy is just the best golfer in the world now. With two wins in his last five starts, and a ballstriking profile that basically screams "when I putt well I win," it's hard to pass on Morikawa this far down the board. Having gotten his major championship hangover week out of the way with a missed cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST, there's no reason to expect anything other than excellence from the 23-year-old stud once again this week.
Patrick Reed (+3200) - Reed's lack of consistency keeps his number a few notches below where it should be, and this week is no exception. He doesn't pop in statistical models like some others, but of the golfers priced right around him -- Jason Day (+3200), Tony Finau (+3200), Patrick Cantlay (+3300), and Viktor Hovland -- Reed has far more win equity. He has two wins in the past 13 months, whereas Day hasn't won in over two years, and Finau, Cantlay, and Hovland have just one, two, and one career wins, respectively. Before an uneven T49 at THE NORTHERN TRUST, Reed logged a T9 at the Wyndham Championship and a T13 at the PGA Championship. Take the value here.
Adam Scott (+3600) - Already a winner this year with a very light schedule even before the suspension of play, Scott is currently on the outside looking in to qualify for the TOUR Championship. A strong finish should move him up from his current 37th in the FedEx Cup Standings. He's played just twice since the layoff, and he should be better suited for a more challenging test than last week. In a short field, he is also a great bet at better than even money for a Top 20 Finish (+130).
Sungjae Im (+6000) - The layoff and return have not been kind to Im, who looked to be on the path to being among the game's elite during the Florida swing before COVID struck. A T9 at the Wyndham gives some measure of hope, though with a heavy schedule, he's had just one other finish inside the top since the return to action (T10 at Colonial). But Im's game is for real, and what he lacks in distance he makes up for in accuracy. With the rough growing out this week -- no doubt the Tour wants to squash another crack at 30-under par -- finding the fairway off the tee will be essential.
Abraham Ancer (+7500) - Another accurate golfer who still packs plenty of distance, Ancer comes off at a great number after a missed cut at TPC Boston. He has four top 15s since returning from the layoff, and a couple near misses this season would be forgiven if he can claim the trophy this week. He showed in last year's Presidents Cup that he could go toe to toe with the best in the world, and at 18th in the FedEx Cup Standings, he is within striking distance and should be locked in this week.