3 Tiger Woods Props to Bet at the PGA Championship
At long last, the first major of the year is upon us.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a ton of different props you can bet for the PGA Championship. And I mean a ton. Rather than trying to delve through all the different options and deciphering which ones might offer value, let's focus on a golfer named Tiger Woods. You might've heard of him.
Going into the first major of the year without covering Tiger would be criminal. So let's take a look at the Tiger props that offer the best value.
For more on the PGA Championship, you can read our Course Primer, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Helper, and Betting Guide. You can also listen to the always-informative Jim Sannes if you'd like to know who to target in DFS.
Without further ado, here are the Tiger props I'm targeting.
To Miss the Cut (+165)
Yes, I agree. This would suck on so many levels. But the potential value here is impossible to ignore.
The +165 odds of Tiger missing the cut carry an implied probability of 34.7%. Our models have his odds of missing the cut at 40.7%. So there's already value there.
With the top 70 (plus ties) making the cut after 36 holes, that means that more than half of the field of 156 will miss the cut. When you consider that Tiger has missed the cut in three of his last four PGA Championship starts and that three of his four missed cuts in his last 33 starts have come in major tournaments, the value starts to become more apparent.
Tiger has also played in just one tournament since mid-February, which isn't ideal.
Given the extremely narrow fairways, large Cypress Trees along those fairways, and, as expected, thick rough at TPC Harding, driving accuracy should be paramount. Woods ranks 90th in driving accuracy this season and 135th in strokes gained: off-the-tee.
Odds Super Boosts
FanDuel Sportsbook has two "Super Boosts" that are piquing my interest. And outside of the potential missed cut, these two are my favorite props to bet involving Tiger.
To Beat Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy in Round 1 (+350)
I was all negative Nancy to start this piece, so let's aim for some positivity to finish it off.
Tiger will be grouped with Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy for the first two rounds of the PGA Championship. No big deal -- just the first and third-ranked players in the world, respectively, teeing it off with (arguably) the best to ever play the sport.
FanDuel has boosted the odds that Tiger will beat Rory and JT in Round 1 from +260 to +350. Note that ties count as a win for the purposes of this bet. Not too shabby.
Though it's just a sample size of four rounds, Tiger's Round 1 scoring average sits at 68.25 on the year. After not carding a first-round score under 70 in any of his 11 starts last year, Woods has already done so three times in four events this season.
Rory's, meanwhile, is 68.27 on the season, though his last five have seen him post an average score of 69.20, including three of 70 or higher. As for Thomas, his is 69.43 this year, his worst average of any round by more than a stroke. Over his last five outings, his Round 1 average is 70.2, including three of 71 or higher. All of that leaves open the very real possibility that Tiger won't need to post too low a number in order for this bet to hit.
As we've seen in the past, if anyone can make a lack of action a positive, it's Tiger Woods.
The +350 odds carry 22.2% implied odds -- I'd say his chances are much higher than that.
To Finish Top 10 (+420)
For a second, forget about everything I said in the first few paragraphs and just think about this: this is Tiger Woods we're talking about.
We don't even have to talk about what Tiger did in his prime. All we need to focus on for this bet is the fact that Tiger has five top-10 finishes in his last 12 events, six of 13 if you include unofficial events. That's a pretty high rate. Any other golfer with a similar or higher rate will be priced much steeper than +420.
Approach play will be vital in giving yourself birdie chances this weekend, and Tiger ranks third in strokes gained: approach, behind only Thomas and Collin Morikawa. And, while Woods may not be red-hot with the driver, he still ranks 26th in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Additionally, TPC Harding will have seven Par 4s playing longer than 450 yards. This year, Tiger ranks fifth in Par 4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards.
Our models give Tiger a 14.5% chance of finishing top 10, but if you're feeling a Tiger surge this weekend, this is, by far, the best value.