Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: 3M Open
By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.
But whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.
|Key Stats for the 3M Open
at TPC Twin Cities
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Strokes Gained: Off the Tee|
|Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass|
|Birdie or Better Rate|
We’ve got just one year of data for TPC Twin cities, and the field last year wasn’t exactly stellar. Via datagolf.com, the field was about as tough as this year’s Sony Open. Matthew Wolff (-21) did beat out Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa (-20).
In total, there were 4 rounds of 62 and another of 63 -- and 13 of 64, so we need golfers who can go low if this course plays similarly.
Also via datagolf, strokes gained: approach explained 40.6% of the scoring last year, well over the PGA Tour average of 34.7%, and around-the green play and putting were downplayed. Off-the-tee performance pointed to good finishes.
We saw 12 golfers finish T7 or better, and among the 24 corresponding off-the-tee and approach data points among them, only one (Troy Merritt's off the tee play) was negative (barely at -0.20). So we need ball-striking, and that’s never a bad place to start anyway. Driving accuracy did show up as a little more important than usual on the Tour average, so I’ll go with that as something to throw in.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Paul Casey (FanDuel Salary: $11,200 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +2500) - Casey should get some missed-cut hate after he did just that at the Memorial last week. He lost more than four strokes around the green, however, which is quite something. He actually ranked third in per-round strokes gained: off the tee and was positive on approach, as well. The ball-striking is something that can win out. Over his past 50 rounds on Tour, he ranks top-three in both strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: approach. The only question for him is the short game, which was less important last year than we typically see.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,500 | +1600) - Dustin Johnson ($12,400), Brooks Koepka ($12,100), and Tony Finau ($11,600) will all draw attention at the top of the salary table, and it's justified. They combine for more than 20% of the win equity in the field, based on the betting odds. I frankly prefer Finau due to his recent performance and savings. That being said, Fleetwood rates out better as a winner in my simulations because his tee-to-green game has been better than theirs over the past year and a half. That's wild to think about. The only problem with Fleetwood is the layoff, as we haven't seen him since March, but we have seen six top-25 finishes in eight starts from Fleetwood in 2020. You'll really want to jam in as many of the top five as you can, including Fleetwood.
I was actually really high on the three others to consider below, but that was before I saw their prices. You can justify a balanced approach this week because the bottom of the field is so questionable. However, the talent gap between the top five (Casey, Fleetwood, Johnson, Koepka, and Finau) is quite cavernous over the $10,000 range.
Others to Consider:
Harris English ($10,800 | +3300) - Leads the field in total strokes gained average over the past 50 rounds.
Russell Henley ($10,500 | +3300) - Second in this field in adjusted strokes gained: approach in 2020 behind just Casey.
Erik Van Rooyen ($10,200 | +4000) - EVR is a tee-to-green stud with good win odds. The price is just awkward.
Doc Redman ($9,900 | +4100) - Redman's ball-striking puts him near the top of the field, as he's 8th in strokes gained: tee to green despite ranking 145th around the green. Yikes. Redman, last week, missed the cut by losing strokes in the short game but added both off the tee and via approach in a really tough Memorial field. That should serve him well at the 3M Open with a field like this. He fits the profile of a potential winner here.
Carlos Ortiz ($9,600 | +7000) - I've been on an Ortiz kick, and it's because he's a good tee-to-green player. He finished fifth here a year ago by gaining 9.3 strokes tee to green (seventh-most). Now, he did lose in both ball-striking stats in a tough field at the Memorial, but he's 17th in strokes gained: tee to green in this field over the past 50 rounds. Ortiz can get a little errant off the tee (110th) but is still a promising pick at this price before things really drop off.
Others to Consider:
Ryan Moore ($9,700 | +6000) - 10th tee to green and 16th in approach but not a good bentgrass putter.
Max Homa ($9,500 | +7000) - 18th off the tee and 25th in approach but struggles around the greens. Wolff-esque profile (last year's winner).
Emiliano Grillo ($8,700 | +10000) - I've pretty much quit playing Grillo, but the bottom drops out of this field pretty immediately. He's 150th or worse in both around-the-green and putting strokes gained but is second in approach, so we have that going for us. The only surface Grillo shows a pulse on when putting is bentgrass. You either go balanced, missing out on the studs, or you embrace a lot of volatility. Grillo leads the field in opportunities gained. That's all we can ask for.
Tom Hoge ($8,300 | +10000) - Hoge won't draw the attention of those who track finishes because he has made one of six cuts since the restart. That's despite gaining on approach in three of those six (tough fields) and being neutral off the tee (again, in fields with some big hitters). Put that into a field this watered down, and Hoge has the profile to make a cut and be able to do something more. It's a week to pick three -- maybe four -- studs to build around and just rotate in the core plays, hoping you hit on the long shots.
Others to Consider:
Kyle Stanley ($8,600 | +12000) - 15th in approach and 10th in opportunities gained over the past 50 rounds on Tour. Can't putt.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,300 | +15000) - Seventh in greens in regulation gained and a candidate to lose 2.0 strokes putting but can light it up with irons.
Cameron Percy ($7,300 | +30000) - Withdrew two weeks ago with a rib injury but sits 12th in approach and looks good even when adjusting for field.
Branden Grace ($7,000 | +9000) - Minimum salary. Just 5 of 13 cuts made but opens up everything and a better player than the price suggests.