DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Daily fantasy golf requires a new approach for each and every event.
The course and field change week after week, making no two contests alike. That means you need to refine your approach for each PGA Tour event to try to find golfers who are primed to excel for your daily fantasy golf lineups.
Each week, we have a course primer, and our daily fantasy golf projections and lineup builder can help you get started, but these golfers stand out specifically on DraftKings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
|Key Stats for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Birdies or Better Gained|
|Greens in Regulation Gained|
|Strokes Gained: Par 5s|
|Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards|
Let's get to the picks. For details on why these stats stand out this week, check out the course primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds, unless otherwise noted.
Rory McIlroy (DraftKings Price: $11,800 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +550) - McIlroy was the champion here in 2018 and has only gotten better since then. He needed an outlier putting performance to win that week, gaining 10 strokes putting for by far his best performance with the short stick in his career. He's been the best overall player in the world since then, and most recently his form has just been silly. He has finished inside the top 10 in 11 of his past 13 starts, including a current streak of 6 top-5 finishes worldwide. He's first in this field in birdies or better gained, strokes gained: tee to green, and strokes gained: par 5s, and fifth in strokes gained: approach.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,000 | +1400) - Is it possible the memory of his approach on the 72nd hole at PGA National haunts his dreams and throws him off his game this week? Sure, but Fleetwood has proved unflappable in the past and holds the current Tour-best streak of cash finishes at 33 straight PGA events. Always a candidate for the low round of the week, the Englishman is second in total strokes gained and strokes gained on par 5s. He's performed well in Florida, with a third-place finish at PGA National last week to match his finish at Bay Hill last year. He also has top 10s at TPC Sawgrass each of the past two years.
Adam Scott ($9,700 | +2000) - Scott jumps out as an immediate value in the high priced tier -- why exactly is he $9,700 while Hideki Matsuyama is $10,600 with the same Vegas odds? You could forgive DraftKings for giving the bump to the guy who has won in the past month, but that's Scott, too. Our stats model likes the Aussie slightly better, as well; he ranks second in strokes gained: tee to green, greens in regulation gained, and proximity gained from 200-plus yards, fourth in approach, and fifth in birdies or better gained. Matsuyama always looks good in any ball-striking model, but we give Scott the edge this week and get $900 in cost savings.
Henrik Stenson ($8,800 | +3700) - Stenson is 2nd in strokes gained: approach, 12th in greens in regulation gained, and 13th in proximity gained from 200-plus yards. A missed cut in 2017 aside, Stenson has finished inside the top 20 here in seven of the past eight years, including four top 5s. He is one of the most consistent players in the world, and even if he lacks the upside of McIlroy or even some lesser golfers, Stenson is a reliable option in DFS every single week he tees it up. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last year, but has played the weekend all but once since then.
Collin Morikawa ($8,400 | +4500) - Fleetwood's streak of money finishes is incredibly impressive, but perhaps just as stunning is the man in (an albeit distant) second place in that regard with 20 consecutive made cuts, Morikawa. He has not missed the weekend since he turned pro, and he is not just scraping by -- Morikawa has a win, 11 top 25s, and just one finish outside the top 50 in that span. He leads this field in strokes gained: approach, is 17th in both birdies or better gained and greens in regulation gained, and is 20th in strokes gained: par 5s.
Viktor Hovland ($8,000 | +4800) - What a difference a week makes! After earning his first PGA Tour win at the Puerto Rico Open, Hovland traveled to Florida and played his worst tournament as a pro. Maybe a dose of reality is just what Viktor needed, and we'll take advantage of the price discount and longer odds to nab him at possibly suppressed ownership this week. Hovland is 7th in strokes gained: approach and birdies or better gained, 11th in greens in regulation gained, and 18th in proximity gained from 200+ yards. We can forgive the 22-year-old a one week hangover, and after the first measured event of his career in which he lost strokes with his irons, we can expect a solid bounce back this week.
Abraham Ancer ($7,800 | +6000) - Ancer has been on fire since missing his first two cuts of the swing season. He has four top 10s in his last eight events, and he was T12 last time out at the WGC-Mexico Championships. His outstanding performance at the Presidents Cup was a harbinger of things to come, and while he missed the cut in his Bay Hill debut last year, he followed it up with at T12 at THE PLAYERS the following week. We compared this track to TPC Sawgrass as a comparable course in our primer, and with his form and confidence, Ancer has every opportunity to compete this week.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,700 | +9000) - Scheffler has acquitted himself well in the Southeast and on bermuda so far in his rookie campaign, gaining strokes in all facets -- off the tee, approach, around the greens, and putting -- at both the Sanderson Farms Championship and the RSM Classic in the swing season. Bay Hill is another animal, but confidence is king for a ball-striker like Scheffler. He was a top-25 machine in the fall before missing his first two cuts as a pro at the Farmers Insurance Open and Waste Management Phoenix Open. He bounced back with a T30 at Riviera and had a middling finish in his first WGC event at Chapultepec. He is 5th in birdies or better gained, 14th in strokes gained: tee to green, 27th in greens in regulation gained, 31st on par 5s, and 38th in approach. Solid across the board and strong bermuda form put Scheffler firmly in consideration in all formats this week.
Ian Poulter ($7,600 | +10000) - The European success at Bay Hill in recent years is covered in the primer, and the adopted Floridian Poulter fits the bill. He has played Bay Hill each of the past nine years and made the cut every time, with six of those installments resulting in a top-25 finish. He was T27 last week and hasn't missed a cut at a regular PGA Tour event (non-major or FedEx Cup Playoff) in almost two years. He ranks 18th in birdies or better gained and strokes gained: par 5s, and he is 30th in proximity gained from 200-plus yards. He is a solid cash-game play this week.
Carlos Ortiz ($7,100 | +10000) - Ortiz has shown an ability to navigate his way to the weekend with some upside so far this season, as he has just 2 missed cuts in 12 events with 3 top 5s. Two of those high finishes came at bermuda courses in Houston and Mississippi. He is solid across the board, ranking 25th in strokes gained: approach, 33rd in birdies or better gained, 34th in greens in regulation gained, and 37th in strokes gained on par 5s.
Brian Harman ($7,000 | +15000) - A quick note on DraftKings scoring related to Harman. He finished a disappointing T47 last week at the Honda Classic. Thanks in large part to an eagle and a streak of birdies, he still managed to accrue 60.50 points on DraftKings. Compare that to a few notable names that finished ahead of him on the real-life leaderboard -- Bud Cauley (T42, 43.00 DK points, Harold Varner (T42, 48.50 DK points), Billy Horschel (T42, 49.50 DK points), Ryan Palmer (T17, 63.00 DK points), and Harris English (T17, 65.00 DK points), to name a few -- and the impact of birdie making becomes glaringly apparent. Harman is 15th in birdies or better gained and 20th in DK scoring
Sebastian Munoz ($6,900 | +10000) - Another DK scoring machine, Munoz actually ranks eighth in the entire field in that category as well as birdies or better gained. He is also 13th on par 5s and 24th in approach, and he should benefit from the return to bermuda greens. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship and placed T3 at the RSM Classic, an even better output than Scheffler on the Southeast courses in the swing season.
Lanto Griffin ($6,900 | +10000) - Like Munoz, Griffin earned his first PGA Tour win this past fall on a bermuda track, his being the Houston Open. He is 6th in strokes gained: par 5s, 11th in proximity gained from 200-plus yards, and 20th in birdies or better gained. Also like Munoz, he'll be making his Bay Hill debut this week. A lack of familiarity with so much water in play is certainly a concern, but both golfers will have had plenty of time to see the layout and formulate a game plan.
Mike Rodden is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Mike Rodden also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mike_rodden. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.