PGA Betting Guide for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
As we've seen the last few years at both early-season Pro-Am events, pretty much any outcome is in play at either The American Express or Pebble Beach. While the La Quinta rotation generally produces a few more off the wall names than the iconic Pebble, the latter is still capable of hosting a Ted Potter or Vaughn Taylor takeover in a coinflip with a top guy. A three-course rotation, slow playing partners, and occasionally windy weather add even more variance to an already combustible recipe.
With driver largely out of the equation and some of the smallest, fastest greens on Tour at least on the namesake course, almost any golfer can contend at this event. We've seen already four winners this year in as many events who lack game-changing power off the tee and could be in for more of the same this week. The bombers will have their say, in the end, no doubt. Aside from a favorite who can dominate just about anywhere, we are going to look for value in the midrange -- and then feel free to get a bit funky on the long shots.
For more info on Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Dustin Johnson (+550) - Johnson leads the market this week at an event he has won twice and generally either contends for the title or is a complete non-factor. In 12 appearances, he has 8 finishes of T7 or better and 4 finishes of T40 or worse. For over a decade, DJ has been able to contend just about any week when he's on his game (and sometimes even when he's not!). So while we don't typically rush to the favorite, Johnson so obviously has the most win equity up here that it is hard to cast him aside in favor of Patrick Cantlay (+1000). At first glance, DJ at almost twice the price of Cantlay should lead us to target the second-favorite almost right off the bat. But when it comes to closing, we still have to find more confidence in Johnson, who wins about twice a year, every year, opposite Cantlay, who has been terrific for the past couple of years but still has just one win on the PGA Tour.
Brandt Snedeker (+2000) - Speaking of two-time winners of this event who have a well-documented affinity for poa annua greens, we'll pay the premium for Sneds this week if you really twist our arm. DJ dominates the top of the board, and we have many choices in the triple-digits, but we can't ignore two wins and some encouraging form out of Snedeker prior to a missed cut at Phoenix. He posted a T12 in Hawaii and a T3 at Torrey Pines, and at courses that can play on the difficult side, it is always nice to back a golfer you know has a run of birdies in them on any given week.
Matt Kuchar (+2700) - Kuchar comes in at a nice number this week considering some of the names going off at higher prices. We know he can navigate tough conditions, and he has decent history at Pebble Beach. He was T22 at this event last year and T16 at the U.S. Open, and his recent form is better than you might think. With a three-stroke win at the SMBC Singapore Open just a few weeks ago followed by T16 at the WMPO, Kuchar is striking it with confidence and offers great value at 27/1.
Jordan Spieth (+4000) - Vegas has finally decided to stop giving Spieth credit for his accomplishments now two-plus years in the rearview, and so we get Jordan at a track he's won at before at twice the odds of Snedeker. Ballstriking woes aside, we've seen Spieth ride a hot putter -- and only a hot putter -- to contention as recently as last spring. For a bet that rewards only outright victory, a missed cut for Spieth is as good as a runner up. We'll forgive his recent woes and take the value at this price.
Chesson Hadley (+10000) - Hadley grinded his way to a top-10 last year at the U.S. Open and has two such finishes at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2014 and 2015. He throws darts when he gets going with the irons, and he'll see plenty of long approach opportunities this week into tiny greens. He is capable of leading the field tee to green, and that type of upside at triple-digits is well worth the investment.
Cameron Tringale (+13000) - Tringale has been striking it well for a while now, and in this field, he ranks fifth in strokes gained: tee to green over his past 50 rounds, according to stats from Fantasy National Golf Club. He's had just one trip to the top of the leaderboard in the past year, a T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic back in June, and for a golfer who has played this well for this long, he should have had a few more shots at really contending.