GOLF

PGA Betting Guide for the Hero World Challenge

Mike Rodden  —  @Mike_Rodden Dec 3rd, 2019
With every golfer in play this week, values are hard to find. If you have a feel for how this event will go, spreading wagers on golfers who should correlate can help you nab a winner without a crystal ball.

Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.

Below, we will cover the best bets for the Hero World Challenge based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.

With just 18 golfers in the field, everyone is in play, but no one offers those tasty long shot odds that we punters find so appealing. We are going to frame this space a bit differently this week, as feel for the course and event is more important than data when most of the sample sizes are still relatively small. We should be trying to predict how the event will play out and which golfers might benefit from each type of event.

For more info on Albany Golf Course, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.

Birdie Fest

If the conditions are perfect, the bombs will fly. Big drivers can let loose off the tee and get even more yardage with ample rollout on these wide fairways, setting up wedges into most greens. The extra par 5 creates eagle opportunities that lead to the final score easily clearing 20-under par, and the winner has three good-to-great rounds and one supernova round where he can do no wrong.

Golfers to consider if you think the birdies will be flying: Jon Rahm (+430), Xander Schauffele (+900), and Bubba Watson (+3300).

Wind Tunnel

The Wednesday forecast looks quite breezy, with steady winds all morning above 12-15 MPH. Thursday looks much calmer, but it is too early to reliably tell how the weekend will play out. If it really gets blowing, the bombers could find themselves in the native grass and in jail off the tee. Golfers who don't mind laying back and targeting with their long irons gain the advantage.

Golfers to consider if you think the gusts will play a major factor: Justin Thomas (+650), Rickie Fowler (+1200), and Henrik Stenson (+2200).

Putt Putt

Embrace the variance and go with the best putters who can roll it well enough to win any week in any conditions. Chipping and putting are the hardest facets of the game to predict, but rarely do we see a golfer hoist the trophy who flubbed it around and on the green. You can visualize the broadcast crew describing one of the best putting performances of the year.

Golfers to consider if you think nothing matters except putting the ball in the hole: Webb Simpson (+1200), Jordan Spieth (+2200), and Kevin Kisner (+4100).