PGA Betting Guide for the Mayakoba Golf Challenge
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Mayakoba Golf Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
With just a couple weeks left in the swing season, the PGA Tour heads to the vacation destination of the Riviera Maya. The field is top heavy but with many familiar names for those following the fall events. Like the golfers themselves, bettors have just a couple events left before the fields start to get tougher and loaded with big name talent. We can use these events to scout future long shot options in the spring, but in the meantime, we may as well just click ourselves another winner.
For more info on El Camaleon GC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Viktor Hovland (+1400) - Hovland finally looked human the past two times out, but sometimes we underestimate the effects of travel on golfers and especially young golfers. After the sprint through the PGA Tour season, watching his comrades earn victories and automatic exemptions, Hovland kicked off his first pro season with a T10 at the Greenbrier then immediately shipped off for events in Europe and Asia, where he finally posted back-to-back events finishes in the top 20. After a few weeks off, he'll be back to business, and Vegas seems intent on pricing him as though he can win any week. That sentiment is certainly accurate, and even at the top of the market, he is worth a look. The thought of him winning without being on him is enough to pull the trigger once again this week.
Tony Finau (+1600) - Another long-suffering also ran, Finau is looking for a signature win to gain steam heading into the President's Cup and the 2020 season. The other two elite veterans in this field -- Jason Day and defending champion Matt Kuchar (both also +1600) -- have a heck of a lot more hardware than Finau. He has come close many times in the past and in stronger fields than this one, but we can certainly see a statement win in Mexico set the stage for big things for Finau in 2020.
Aaron Wise (+3100) - The super talented Wise has failed to find consistency in his young career, but along with the low lows are some high highs. One came two weeks ago with a T3 in Bermuda, and the last time Wise recorded a top-five finish, he followed it up with a win. He is a name to watch in some bigger events this year when he could approach triple-digit odds, but for now, we'll be content to ride him, especially if the conditions stay wet as expected. Wise benefits more than most from courses slowing down, as he can carry longer distance with his driver even without any roll, and he can get a better read on greens softened by rain.
Denny McCarthy (+4100) - McCarthy is the Jordan Spieth of the PGA alternates -- he is a capable but far from elite ballstriker who can putt the lights out and find himself in contention over a string of events. While Spieth has had incredible peaks, McCarthy is in the midst of a terrific run of results that signal either an imminent win or the carpet being ripped out from under him. He is the best putter in this field and one of the best on Tour. While we typically don't rely on short game to forecast future performance over the long term, McCarthy can find the top of the leaderboard in almost any tournament. He's worth a bet when the field is short on big name talent, and he's more than fair at 41/1.
Cameron Tringale (+6000) - Tringale offers terrific value this far down the board, and while he has not been able to show the closing ability we'd like in an outright bet, he is certainly flushing it and giving himself a shot each week if the putter cooperates. His iron play has been stellar basically through the summer and fall, and a couple bounces the right way could put him in contention this week. He has finished inside the top 20 in half of his last 14 events, making him a solid bet for a top-20 finish at +300 in addition to the outright wager.
Kyle Stanley (+8000) - We just can't quit Stanley, who has now gained at least 4.9 strokes with his approaches in each of the last three events. The irons have been strong for awhile, as he ranks second in this field in strokes gained: approach over the last 50 rounds, according to Fantasy National Golf Club. He's been off since a T21 at Houston, and the uninspiring course form shouldn't take away from how talented he is. He does have a T13 here way back in 2011, and his game should set up well with a solid approach game making up for distance off the tee.