Gdula's Golf Simulations: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.

We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.

The Process

I'll keep it simple: I track weekly results from the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour.

Using a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers, I adjust each golfer's score relative to the field. The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours.

Their adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing the event out thousands of times.

Here are the results for this week's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

Top Win Odds

Golfer Wins FanDuel
Golfer Wins FanDuel
Adam Scott 5.9% +1800 Brooks Koepka 5.3% +750
Patrick Cantlay 4.8% +1200 Hideki Matsuyama 3.6% +2200
Webb Simpson 3.2% +2000 Bryson DeChambeau 2.3% +1400
Collin Morikawa 2.3% +3100 Gary Woodland 2.3% +2900
Tony Finau 2.2% +2200 Jason Kokrak 2.2% +4800
Chez Reavie 2.1% +5000 Joaquin Niemann 2.1% +3100
Jim Furyk 2.0% +6500 Byeong Hun An 1.9% +4500
Scott Piercy 1.5% +5000 Jhonattan Vegas 1.5% +10000
Brandt Snedeker 1.5% +4500 Adam Hadwin 1.4% +4800
Charles Howell III 1.4% +5500 Max Homa 1.3% +19000
Andrew Putnam 1.3% +6000 Ryan Moore 1.2% +6500
Rory Sabbatini 1.1% +8000 Kevin Streelman 1.0% +8000
Dylan Frittelli 1.0% +4200 Kevin Na 1.0% +6000
Emiliano Grillo 1.0% +8000 Keegan Bradley 1.0% +6500
Ryan Palmer 1.0% +8000 Tom Lewis 0.9% +9000

This week, 22.8% of the win equity is spread through the top five golfers. Not all of them offer positive value on FanDuel Sportsbook, but one sure does. Just like last week, it's Adam Scott at +1800. Scott has been stellar in 2019, ranking second in the field (1.88) behind only Patrick Cantlay (2.02).

The second-best value pick among the studs -- per the simulations -- is Hideki Matsuyama at +2200. Matsuyama ranks third in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour, according to FantasyNational.

If not backing the favorites, there are plenty of values. Among mid-range picks, these golfers pop: Byeong-Hun An (+4500), Jason Kokrak (+4800), Jason Kokrak (+4800), Chez Reavie (+5000), Scott Piercy (+5000),and Jim Furyk (+6500) are also standout betting values on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Punt Plays

With studs and a strong mid-range this week, the full-on punt plays are a bit scarce. However, we can still look to Jhonattan Vegas (+10000), Max Homa (+19000), and Tom Lewis (+9000) for top-20s and longshot winners.