Daily Fantasy Golf: Tournament Targets and Avoids for the BMW Championship
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week, but the volatility -- top-tier golfers can miss the cut, and longshots can win outright -- makes it a unique daily fantasy sport.
Ownership won't always matter, and favorites will win and thrive some weeks, but when the chalk struggles and the pivots hit big, you can put yourself in a great position to succeed when playing large tournaments on FanDuel.
Whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week in GPP tournaments on FanDuel.
|Key Stats for the BMW Championship at Medinah CC|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Birdies or Better Gained|
|Par 5 Scoring|
|Proximity from 200+|
|Strokes Gained: Ball Striking|
With just two tournaments left in the season, the FedEx Cup Playoffs have been narrowed down to the top-70 golfers with the top-30 advancing to next week's Tour Championship. Those top-70 golfers head to the Chicago, Illinois area for the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.
Medinah Country Club's No. 3 course sits over 7,600 yards and is a par 72, and this event has not cut. The PGA has not played at Medinah since the 2006 PGA Championship which was won by Tiger Woods at 18 under par, although the course did host the 2012 Ryder Cup. Prior to 2006, the 1999 PGA Championship, also won by Woods was hosted at Medinah.
With the course being long, par 5 scoring, strokes gained: approach and proximity gained: 200+ all come into play while strokes gained: ball striking will be important this week as it links off-the-tee and approach shots. Finally, birdies or better gained rounds out the five key stats as golfers will need to make birdies and go low (likely coming in around 15 under par) in order to win the BMW Championship. The overall "ideal golfer" should be good with his long-iron play while being able to incorporate accuracy and distance off the tee.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
High-Priced Tier ($12,200 - $10,000)
Target: Brooks Koepka (FanDuel Salary $12,200) - The world's number one ranked golfer comes in as the top-priced golfer on the slate, and he is currently projected at sub 14% ownership, the second-lowest owned golfer, per FantasyNational, at or above $11,000. Koepka, who has not missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March, has six top-five finishes, including two wins, over his last 10 PGA events. Over the last 50 rounds, Koepka ranks inside the top-20 in all five key stats, while sitting inside the top-10 in strokes gained: ball striking (ninth) and birdies or better gained (sixth). When narrowing down to the last 12 rounds, Koepka's stats drop significantly as he is outside of the top-40 in three of the five key stats, but Rory McIlroy's stats also drop over that time period, and he is projected at almost two and a half times the ownership of Koepka.
Avoid: Justin Rose ($11,400) - In this small of field, at this tier, we are really just splitting hairs as every golfer is clearly capable of winning. However, with that being said, Rose is projected as the second-highest owned golfer in this tier as he is entering the BMW Championship with five straight top-20 finishes. Over the last 50 rounds, Rose sits inside the top-35 in all five key stats but only ranks inside the top-15 in birdies or better gained (ninth). When zooming in on the last 24 rounds, Rose ranks outside of the top-15 in all five key stats and falls outside of the top-35 in proximity gained: 200+ (39th). Entering in great form, Rose's ownership may come in at a difficult number to swallow when there are just as capable golfers at lower projected numbers.
Mid-Priced Tier ($9,900 - $8,000)
Target: Gary Woodland ($9,000) - Woodland, who was written up last week as an avoid, barely sneaked through the cut at the NORTHERN TRUST and finished T52 at three under. Currently projected at sub-five percent ownership, Woodland is strictly an ownership play, based on his upside, that could provide great leverage in large-field tournaments. Over the last 24 rounds, Woodland's stats line up to this course as he ranks inside the top-25 in all five key stats and comes inside the top-10 in strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5s and proximity gained: 200+. The form is the big question for Woodland currently, but DFS players will not need to allocate a large amount of ownership to gain an advantage (if he breaks out) on the field.
Target: Lucas Glover ($8,000) - Glover, who is currently projected at sub 10 percent ownership, has made the cut in five straight PGA events, while finishing inside the top-10 twice over that span. Over the last 50 rounds, Glover's stats are not great, as he cracks the top-30 in just one of the five key stats, proximity gained: 200+, but he does sit inside the top-45 in all five key areas. Over the last 12 rounds, however, Glover ranks inside the top-30 in all five key stats while falling inside the top-15 in stroked gained: ball striking and proximity gained: 200+. The biggest question for Glover is always his putter, as he is equally as bad on all surfaces, but an "OK" week putting could pay dividends in large-field tournaments.
Avoid: Ian Poulter ($9,300) - With two straight top-10 finishes, Poulter is currently projected as the top-owned golfer in this tier. Prior to his two top-10s, Poulter missed three of four PGA cuts while finishing 70th at the Charles Schwab. When looking at the last 24 rounds, Poulter comes inside the top-20 in just one key stat, strokes gained: par 5s, while sitting 50th or worse in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: ball striking. When expanding out to the last 50 rounds, Poulter breaks the top-20 in three of the five key stats but still sits outside the top-45 in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: ball striking. Poulter needs a top-finish for a chance at the Tour Championship, but his ownership, and favorite percentage, are high and DFS players should look for greater leverage in this range.
Low-Priced Tier ($7,900 and below)
Target: Emiliano Grillo ($7,600) - Failing to crack the top-55 in four straight tournaments, including two straight missed cuts, Grillo is currently to projected at sub-five percent. Barring a win, this will likely be Grillo's last event of the season as he currently sits 58th in the FedEx Standings. In a stacked field with no cut, golfers in this tier can feel like dart throws, and Grillo should feel no different. He does, however, rate out well when looking at his last 24 rounds, as he cracks the top-five in strokes gained: ball striking and strokes gained: approach, but does fall outside the top-35 in the other three key stats. It will be hard for Grillo to win this week at the BMW Championship, but at his price, a top-10 finish, especially at his ownership, should pay dividends.
Avoid: Corey Conners ($7,700) - Conners, who currently sits 27th in the FedEx Cup Standings, needs to remain inside the top-30 to qualify for next week's Tour Championship. Currently projected as the top-owned golfer in this tier, Conners has three straight top-30 finishes (but never cracks the top-20), and he missed the cut in three of his previous four tournaments prior. When looking at the last 50 rounds, Conners ranks inside the top-10 in strokes gained: ball striking and strokes gained: approach, while sitting outside the top-40 in the three other key stats. When zooming in on the last 24 rounds, however, Conners falls outside the top-35 in four of the five key stats while sitting 11th in strokes gained: ball striking. Despite the need for a good performance, Conners ownership, especially in this tier, might be too high for what could be another 20-30th place finish.
Ben Fisher is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ben Fisher also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Gvsubrickwall. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.